1999 · Week 2 · Division
Final
Giants Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 70°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
NYG -2.5
Total
41
Model margin
-0.5est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.098EPA / play-0.084
- 44.4%Success rate38.6%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.016
- +0.036EPA / rush-0.207
- 10.8%Explosive rate6.4%
- 36.2%Third-down rate35.7%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.78Points / drive1.14
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.039
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 20/28 | 231 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 23 | 126 | 5.5 | 3 |
| Skip Hicks | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Casey Weldon | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Alexander | 5 | 7 | 86 | 2 |
| Michael Westbrook | 4 | 4 | 59 | 1 |
| Albert Connell | 4 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Graham | 20/31 | 268 | 1 | 1 |
| Kerry Collins | 3/7 | 44 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Bennett | 4 | 45 | 11.3 | 0 |
| LeShon Johnson | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Kent Graham | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Hilliard | 8 | 10 | 114 | 1 |
| Amani Toomer | 5 | 6 | 105 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Sean Bennett | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| LeShon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Howard Cross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.66
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.49