1999 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Brad Johnson

50·21

Giants

New York

QB Kent Graham

Giants Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 70°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NYG -2.5

Total

41

Model margin

-0.5est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • +0.098EPA / play-0.084
  • 44.4%Success rate38.6%
  • +0.143EPA / dropback-0.016
  • +0.036EPA / rush-0.207
  • 10.8%Explosive rate6.4%
  • 36.2%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.14
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.039

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYG
WASQ1 15:00973Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 9:2544Punt7–0
WASQ1 7:16653Touchdown14–0
NYGQ1 4:3931Punt14–0
WASQ1 3:22439Touchdown21–0
NYGQ1 1:361193Touchdown21–7
WASQ2 11:103-1Punt21–7
NYGQ2 9:5834Punt21–7
WASQ2 8:2630Punt21–7
NYGQ2 7:23738Opp touchdown27–7
WASQ2 3:1500Opp touchdown27–7
NYGQ2 3:15246Touchdown27–14
WASQ2 2:161165Touchdown33–14
NYGQ2 0:0600End of half33–14
WASQ2 0:0300End of half33–14
NYGQ3 15:003-13Punt33–14
WASQ3 13:58631Field goal36–14
NYGQ3 10:041-2Turnover36–14
WASQ3 9:49317Touchdown43–14
NYGQ3 8:26673Turnover on downs43–14
WASQ3 5:50421Punt43–14
NYGQ3 3:5444Punt43–14
WASQ3 2:131276Touchdown50–14
NYGQ4 11:13981Touchdown50–21
WASQ4 7:1259Turnover on downs50–21
NYGQ4 4:20744Turnover50–21
WASQ4 2:42315End of half50–21

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson20/2823130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis231265.53
Skip Hicks8222.80
Brian Mitchell3134.30
Brad Johnson2115.50
Casey Weldon3-2-0.70
Michael Westbrook1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stephen Alexander57862
Michael Westbrook44591
Albert Connell48290
Irving Fryar12100
Stephen Davis1250
Mike Sellers1130

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kent Graham20/3126811
Kerry Collins3/74401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sean Bennett44511.30
LeShon Johnson8182.31
Kent Graham252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ike Hilliard8101141
Amani Toomer561050
Joe Jurevicius34360
Pete Mitchell24280
Sean Bennett24140
LeShon Johnson1180
Tiki Barber1340
David Patten1330
Dan Campbell0100
Howard Cross0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.8%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.39
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.49