Closing spread
ATL -1.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. STL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Graziani | 14/22 | 152 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 5/9 | 28 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Hanspard | 17 | 50 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Tony Graziani | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ken Oxendine | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terance Mathis | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Byron Hanspard | 2 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| O.J. Santiago | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Chris Calloway | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Ronnie Harris | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin+3.34
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.