Closing spread
JAX -9.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play+0.048
- 40.1%Success rate42.5%
- +0.067EPA / dropback+0.145
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.086
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- 39.0%Third-down rate40.4%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
- 1.52Points / drive1.75
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.042EPA / play allowed-0.127
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil O'Donnell | 17/32 | 204 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 18 | 57 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 6 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 2 | -7 | -3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Dyson | 6 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Yancey Thigpen | 2 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 4 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Frank Wycheck | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Michael Roan | 1 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Rodney Thomas | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 22/42 | 232 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 25 | 98 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tavian Banks | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 10 | 16 | 129 | 1 |
| Keenan McCardell | 4 | 10 | 55 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Tavian Banks | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Reggie Barlow | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.12
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.20