1999 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Doug Flutie

23·18

Dolphins

Miami

QB Dan Marino

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

MIA -4.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.010EPA / play-0.116
  • 40.3%Success rate37.3%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback-0.071
  • -0.195EPA / rush-0.186
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 41.4%Third-down rate34.2%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.17
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.138EPA / play allowed-0.102

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:58556Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 10:4634Punt3–0
BUFQ1 8:5824Turnover3–0
MIAQ1 8:11429Field goal3–3
BUFQ1 6:4632Punt3–3
MIAQ1 5:31635Field goal3–6
BUFQ1 1:57852Field goal6–6
MIAQ2 12:581147Punt6–6
BUFQ2 7:0431Punt6–6
MIAQ2 5:593-1Opp touchdown13–6
BUFQ2 4:3100Opp touchdown13–6
MIAQ2 4:31413Turnover13–6
BUFQ2 2:3034Punt13–6
MIAQ2 1:41779Field goal13–9
BUFQ3 15:0062Punt13–9
MIAQ3 11:05415Punt13–9
BUFQ3 9:0236Punt13–9
MIAQ3 7:1730Punt13–9
BUFQ3 6:2343Punt13–9
MIAQ3 4:371341Field goal13–12
BUFQ4 13:23790Touchdown20–12
MIAQ4 10:02313Turnover20–12
BUFQ4 8:2336Field goal23–12
MIAQ4 6:5634Touchdown23–18
BUFQ4 5:13517Punt23–18
MIAQ4 2:59510Turnover on downs23–18
BUFQ4 2:2539End of half23–18

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Flutie12/2518610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antowain Smith12363.00
Doug Flutie9293.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jay Riemersma45850
Eric Moulds47601
Kevin R. Williams24260
Peerless Price0100
Andre Reed0500

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dan Marino22/4425112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cecil Collins16472.90
J.J. Johnson4112.80
Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar320.70
Stanley Pritchett1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
O.J. McDuffie714641
Oronde Gadsden38460
Tony Martin24380
Troy Drayton35290
Stanley Pritchett12180
Cecil Collins2250
J.J. Johnson1230
Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.84%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.6%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.30
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-0.18