Closing spread
MIA -4.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.010EPA / play-0.116
- 40.3%Success rate37.3%
- +0.116EPA / dropback-0.071
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.186
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- 41.4%Third-down rate34.2%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
- 1.59Points / drive1.17
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.138EPA / play allowed-0.102
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 12/25 | 186 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Doug Flutie | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Riemersma | 4 | 5 | 85 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 4 | 7 | 60 | 1 |
| Kevin R. Williams | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Marino | 22/44 | 251 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Collins | 16 | 47 | 2.9 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. McDuffie | 7 | 14 | 64 | 1 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 3 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Troy Drayton | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Cecil Collins | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.18