1999 · Week 4

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Steve Beuerlein

36·38

Commanders

Washington

QB Brad Johnson

Jack Kent Cooke Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

WAS -8.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapCommanders
  • +0.026EPA / play+0.098
  • 42.4%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback+0.143
  • -0.151EPA / rush+0.036
  • 9.7%Explosive rate10.8%
  • 38.5%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 1.98Points / drive1.78
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
  • +0.053EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 8–7 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. WAS are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7CAR @ WAS7–40WAS
2021 · W11WAS @ CAR27–21WAS
2020 · W16CAR @ WAS20–13CAR
2019 · W13WAS @ CAR29–21WAS
2018 · W6CAR @ WAS17–23WAS
2016 · W15CAR @ WAS26–15CAR
2015 · W11WAS @ CAR16–44CAR
2012 · W9CAR @ WAS21–13CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–WAS
CARQ1 15:00417Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:3330Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:36372Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 11:3800Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 11:27328Touchdown14–0
WASQ1 9:58617Punt14–0
CARQ1 6:47260Touchdown21–0
WASQ1 6:011478Touchdown21–7
CARQ2 13:26758Field goal24–7
WASQ2 10:12467Touchdown24–14
CARQ2 8:3034Punt24–14
WASQ2 6:51622Touchdown24–21
CARQ2 4:333-10Punt24–27
WASQ2 2:42162Touchdown24–28
CARQ2 2:33965Turnover24–28
WASQ2 0:4100End of half24–28
WASQ3 15:0039Punt24–28
CARQ3 13:0334Punt24–28
WASQ3 12:03460Touchdown24–35
CARQ3 10:211145Missed field goal24–35
WASQ3 6:06614Turnover on downs24–35
CARQ3 3:10541Field goal27–35
WASQ3 1:0032Punt27–35
CARQ3 0:00730Field goal30–35
WASQ4 11:3731Punt30–35
CARQ4 10:28747Touchdown36–35
WASQ4 7:57418Punt36–35
CARQ4 5:5838Punt36–35
WASQ4 4:191269Field goal36–38
CARQ4 0:06114End of half36–38

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve Beuerlein23/4733411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Biakabutuka1214211.83
Fred Lane492.30
Rae Carruth144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Muhsin Muhammad8141510
Rae Carruth38620
Patrick Jeffers57570
Eric Metcalf11190
Wesley Walls211191
Tim Biakabutuka11120
Anthony Johnson2290
Fred Lane1150

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson20/3333740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis21723.41
Brian Mitchell5153.00
Michael Westbrook11212.00
Brad Johnson4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Westbrook8121402
Albert Connell5101342
Irving Fryar23230
Stephen Alexander1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.38