1999 · Week 4
Final
Jack Kent Cooke Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -8.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.098
- 42.4%Success rate44.4%
- +0.116EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.151EPA / rush+0.036
- 9.7%Explosive rate10.8%
- 38.5%Third-down rate36.2%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.98Points / drive1.78
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.053EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. WAS are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 23/47 | 334 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 12 | 142 | 11.8 | 3 |
| Fred Lane | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Rae Carruth | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 8 | 14 | 151 | 0 |
| Rae Carruth | 3 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Patrick Jeffers | 5 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Eric Metcalf | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 2 | 11 | 19 | 1 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Fred Lane | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 20/33 | 337 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 21 | 72 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Brian Mitchell | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Westbrook | 8 | 12 | 140 | 2 |
| Albert Connell | 5 | 10 | 134 | 2 |
| Irving Fryar | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.38