1999 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

17·3

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

Three Rivers Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 62°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

42

Model margin

-0.9est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.048EPA / play-0.063
  • 42.5%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.145EPA / dropback-0.073
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.048
  • 8.0%Explosive rate6.4%
  • 40.4%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 46.2%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.27
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.127EPA / play allowed-0.045

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–9 since 1999

Meetings average 37.9 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8JAX @ PIT20–10JAX
2020 · W11PIT @ JAX27–3PIT
2018 · W11PIT @ JAX20–16PIT
2017 · playoffsJAX @ PIT45–42JAX
2017 · W5JAX @ PIT30–9JAX
2014 · W5PIT @ JAX17–9PIT
2011 · W6JAX @ PIT13–17PIT
2008 · W5PIT @ JAX26–21PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–PIT
PITQ1 15:003-4Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:5533Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:2031Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 11:1633Punt0–0
PITQ1 9:53820Punt0–0
JAXQ1 4:421168Touchdown7–0
PITQ2 14:15621Punt7–0
JAXQ2 11:3734Punt7–0
PITQ2 10:43618Punt7–0
JAXQ2 7:03528Punt7–0
PITQ2 5:05729Punt7–0
JAXQ2 1:384-3Turnover7–0
PITQ2 1:00622Field goal7–3
JAXQ3 15:0036Punt7–3
PITQ3 12:57744Turnover7–3
JAXQ3 9:30831Field goal10–3
PITQ3 6:1837Punt10–3
JAXQ3 4:3235Punt10–3
PITQ3 2:49515Turnover on downs10–3
JAXQ3 1:0343Punt10–3
PITQ3 0:021265Turnover on downs10–3
JAXQ4 9:50839Field goal13–3
PITQ4 5:403-20Safety15–3
JAXQ4 4:47619Punt17–3
PITQ4 0:581-2Safety17–3
JAXQ4 0:5400End of half17–3

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell10/258511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart21733.50
Fred Taylor8283.50
Mark Brunell5214.20
Tavian Banks122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan McCardell310241
Kyle Brady25200
Jimmy Smith24180
James Stewart1270
Tavian Banks1130
Fred Taylor0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kordell Stewart15/3212601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis20582.90
Kordell Stewart6416.80
Richard Huntley5183.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerome Bettis44270
Troy Edwards23220
Courtney Hawkins17190
Hines Ward27190
Will Blackwell24180
Mitch Lyons12130
Mark Bruener1150
Jerame Tuman0100
Richard Huntley11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.7%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.45
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.89