Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
42
Model margin
-0.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.048EPA / play-0.063
- 42.5%Success rate41.6%
- +0.145EPA / dropback-0.073
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.048
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.4%
- 40.4%Third-down rate37.4%
- 46.2%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 1.75Points / drive1.27
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.127EPA / play allowed-0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–9 since 1999
Meetings average 37.9 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 10/25 | 85 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 21 | 73 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Tavian Banks | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan McCardell | 3 | 10 | 24 | 1 |
| Kyle Brady | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Tavian Banks | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 15/32 | 126 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 20 | 58 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Courtney Hawkins | 1 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 2 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Will Blackwell | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Mitch Lyons | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.7%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.89