Closing spread
NYG -9.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.192EPA / play-0.084
- 33.4%Success rate38.6%
- -0.199EPA / dropback-0.016
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.207
- 6.4%Explosive rate6.4%
- 31.2%Third-down rate35.7%
- 46.7%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 0.90Points / drive1.14
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.098EPA / play allowed-0.039
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Pederson | 6/15 | 75 | 0 | 2 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3/7 | 38 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 21 | 62 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| James Bostic | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 3 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Torrance Small | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Dietrich Jells | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| James Bostic | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Graham | 15/29 | 171 | 1 | 3 |
| Kerry Collins | 6/12 | 86 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Brown | 27 | 87 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Kent Graham | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| LeShon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 8 | 13 | 123 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 4 | 8 | 64 | 1 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 1 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Howard Cross | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Gary Brown | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| David Patten | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.69