1999 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Troy Aikman

10·13

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Doug Pederson

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 65°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

DAL -9.5

Total

37

Model margin

+1.0est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapEagles
  • -0.013EPA / play-0.192
  • 39.6%Success rate33.4%
  • +0.043EPA / dropback-0.199
  • -0.079EPA / rush-0.181
  • 9.3%Explosive rate6.4%
  • 34.8%Third-down rate31.2%
  • 51.1%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
  • 1.25Points / drive0.90
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.6%
  • -0.080EPA / play allowed-0.098

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PHI
DALQ1 15:00731Punt0–0
PHIQ1 10:383-1Punt0–0
DALQ1 9:1534Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 7:0737Punt3–0
DALQ1 5:31973Turnover3–0
PHIQ1 0:3732Punt3–0
DALQ2 14:19548Touchdown10–0
PHIQ2 11:3536Punt10–0
DALQ2 10:051032Turnover10–0
PHIQ2 4:33526Punt10–0
DALQ2 2:0834Punt10–0
PHIQ2 1:43720Punt10–0
DALQ2 0:2000End of half10–0
PHIQ3 15:0030Punt10–0
DALQ3 13:16513Punt10–0
PHIQ3 10:57414Punt10–0
DALQ3 9:36924Punt10–0
PHIQ3 4:53722Turnover10–0
DALQ3 1:28821Punt10–0
PHIQ4 13:40729Field goal10–3
DALQ4 11:48632Missed field goal10–3
PHIQ4 9:00856Field goal10–6
DALQ4 5:4236Punt10–6
PHIQ4 3:13772Touchdown10–13
DALQ4 1:0740Turnover10–13
PHIQ4 0:3900Turnover on downs10–13
DALQ4 0:11113End of half10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Troy Aikman21/3917712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith301143.80
Raghib Ismail11717.00
Troy Aikman1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Raghib Ismail711880
Emmitt Smith56311
David LaFleur33220
Ernie Mills27160
Michael Irvin1180
Jason Tucker1460
Chris Warren2360
Tim Lester0100
Jeff Ogden0300

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Pederson11/2914511
Torrance Small0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley221105.00
James Bostic144.00
Doug Pederson4-9-2.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Johnson26641
Torrance Small36480
Duce Staley47190
Luther Broughton13110
Jed Weaver1130
Dameane Douglas0100
Dietrich Jells0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

1.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.8%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.56
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.00