Closing spread
DAL -9.5
Total
37
Model margin
+1.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play-0.192
- 39.6%Success rate33.4%
- +0.043EPA / dropback-0.199
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.181
- 9.3%Explosive rate6.4%
- 34.8%Third-down rate31.2%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
- 1.25Points / drive0.90
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.6%
- -0.080EPA / play allowed-0.098
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 21/39 | 177 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 30 | 114 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Troy Aikman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 7 | 11 | 88 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 5 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| David LaFleur | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Ernie Mills | 2 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Michael Irvin | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Tim Lester | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Ogden | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Pederson | 11/29 | 145 | 1 | 1 |
| Torrance Small | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 22 | 110 | 5.0 | 0 |
| James Bostic | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 4 | -9 | -2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 2 | 6 | 64 | 1 |
| Torrance Small | 3 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 4 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Dameane Douglas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dietrich Jells | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.00