Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
40
Model margin
-2.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.048EPA / play-0.030
- 42.5%Success rate38.9%
- +0.145EPA / dropback+0.047
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.9%
- 40.4%Third-down rate34.6%
- 46.2%Red-zone TD rate40.9%
- 1.75Points / drive1.28
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.127EPA / play allowed-0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. NYJ are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 21/35 | 215 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 26 | 96 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Tavian Banks | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Chris Howard | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan McCardell | 4 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Reggie Barlow | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Tavian Banks | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rick Mirer | 19/38 | 164 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Rick Mirer | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 8 | 13 | 94 | 0 |
| Quinn Early | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Eric Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Spence | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dwight Stone | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.6%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.25
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.04