1999 · Week 5

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

16·6

Jets

New York

QB Rick Mirer

Giants Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 61°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

40

Model margin

-2.0est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapJets
  • +0.048EPA / play-0.030
  • 42.5%Success rate38.9%
  • +0.145EPA / dropback+0.047
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.130
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.9%
  • 40.4%Third-down rate34.6%
  • 46.2%Red-zone TD rate40.9%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.28
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.127EPA / play allowed-0.034

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. NYJ are 5-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15NYJ @ JAX20–48JAX
2024 · W15NYJ @ JAX32–25NYJ
2022 · W16JAX @ NYJ19–3JAX
2021 · W16JAX @ NYJ21–26NYJ
2019 · W8NYJ @ JAX15–29JAX
2018 · W4NYJ @ JAX12–31JAX
2017 · W4JAX @ NYJ20–23NYJ
2015 · W9JAX @ NYJ23–28NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:031361Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 6:28425Punt7–0
JAXQ1 4:0934Punt7–0
NYJQ1 3:08524Punt7–0
JAXQ1 0:35733Turnover7–0
NYJQ2 12:4934Punt7–0
JAXQ2 11:4934Punt7–0
NYJQ2 10:46421Turnover7–0
JAXQ2 9:06544Field goal10–0
NYJQ2 5:27835Field goal10–3
JAXQ2 1:38527Punt10–3
NYJQ2 0:54412Punt10–3
JAXQ2 0:1810End of half10–3
JAXQ3 15:00861Field goal13–3
NYJQ3 10:143-6Punt13–3
JAXQ3 8:071144Punt13–3
NYJQ3 2:403-8Punt13–3
JAXQ3 1:5138Punt13–3
NYJQ3 0:231351Field goal13–6
JAXQ4 8:53517Punt13–6
NYJQ4 6:4149Turnover on downs13–6
JAXQ4 5:33417Punt13–6
NYJQ4 3:3544Turnover on downs13–6
JAXQ4 2:3733Field goal16–6
NYJQ4 1:46951Turnover16–6

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell21/3521500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart26963.71
Tavian Banks3144.70
Chris Howard393.00
Mark Brunell263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan McCardell48600
Kyle Brady55420
Reggie Barlow12310
Tavian Banks35260
Jimmy Smith34210
James Stewart23110
Damon Jones11100
Chris Howard0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rick Mirer19/3816402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin18593.30
Bernie Parmalee4164.00
Rick Mirer2147.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keyshawn Johnson813940
Quinn Early13170
Dedric Ward23160
Curtis Martin34150
Bernie Parmalee1280
Eric Green0100
Blake Spence0200
Dwight Stone0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.6%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.35
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.25
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.04