Closing spread
BUF -6.5
Total
38
Model margin
+6.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play-0.010
- 41.6%Success rate40.3%
- -0.073EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.195
- 6.4%Explosive rate7.9%
- 37.4%Third-down rate41.4%
- 52.5%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.27Points / drive1.59
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.045EPA / play allowed-0.138
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–6 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 11:06 | 1 | -1 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 11:01 | 3 | 12 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 9:40 | 14 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| PIT | Q1 1:47 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–7 |
| BUF | Q2 14:49 | 2 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| PIT | Q2 14:13 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 7–14 |
| BUF | Q2 11:41 | 11 | 79 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| PIT | Q2 4:31 | 9 | 71 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| BUF | Q2 0:51 | 6 | 32 | Missed field goal | 14–17 |
| PIT | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–17 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 14–17 |
| PIT | Q3 13:01 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–17 |
| BUF | Q3 11:34 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–17 |
| PIT | Q3 9:54 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–17 |
| BUF | Q3 8:21 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 14–17 |
| PIT | Q3 6:07 | 6 | 42 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| BUF | Q3 3:42 | 6 | 38 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| PIT | Q3 0:32 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 14–24 |
| BUF | Q4 11:46 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 14–24 |
| PIT | Q4 7:23 | 10 | 62 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| BUF | Q4 2:44 | 4 | 21 | End of half | 21–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 21/29 | 216 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 13 | 24 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Richard Huntley | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 6 | 6 | 67 | 1 |
| Troy Edwards | 4 | 7 | 50 | 1 |
| Richard Huntley | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Mitch Lyons | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Courtney Hawkins | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Will Blackwell | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 21/32 | 261 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 6 | 9 | 122 | 1 |
| Andre Reed | 6 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 4 | 9 | 35 | 1 |
| Sheldon Jackson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+6.31