Closing spread
STL -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 22/36 | 233 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lawrence Phillips | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 6 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 5 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 4 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Lawrence Phillips | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.46
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.