Closing spread
STL -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:38 | 8 | 83 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 7:42 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 6:03 | 4 | 64 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| SF | Q1 4:26 | 5 | 38 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| LA | Q1 1:34 | 1 | 45 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| SF | Q1 1:12 | 10 | 77 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| LA | Q2 12:24 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| SF | Q2 11:01 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–21 |
| LA | Q2 9:58 | 11 | 69 | Touchdown | 10–28 |
| SF | Q2 4:09 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 16–28 |
| LA | Q2 2:05 | 1 | -9 | Opp touchdown | 17–28 |
| SF | Q2 1:59 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 17–28 |
| LA | Q2 1:59 | 4 | 18 | End of half | 17–28 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 56 | Punt | 17–28 |
| SF | Q3 7:23 | 10 | 72 | Field goal | 20–34 |
| LA | Q3 1:42 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 20–35 |
| SF | Q3 1:25 | 7 | 26 | Turnover | 20–35 |
| LA | Q4 13:18 | 4 | 55 | Touchdown | 20–42 |
| SF | Q4 11:11 | 11 | 36 | Turnover | 20–42 |
| LA | Q4 6:14 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 20–42 |
| SF | Q4 3:08 | 2 | 17 | Turnover | 20–42 |
| LA | Q4 2:30 | 3 | 16 | End of half | 20–42 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 22/36 | 233 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lawrence Phillips | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 6 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 5 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 4 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Lawrence Phillips | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.46
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.