Closing spread
JAX -17.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.110EPA / play+0.048
- 35.3%Success rate42.5%
- -0.079EPA / dropback+0.145
- -0.177EPA / rush-0.086
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- 29.7%Third-down rate40.4%
- 74.3%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
- 1.12Points / drive1.75
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.5%
- +0.100EPA / play allowed-0.127
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 43 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 11:07 | 14 | 68 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CLE | Q1 2:53 | 12 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| JAX | Q2 12:21 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CLE | Q2 11:09 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 7–3 |
| JAX | Q2 8:01 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CLE | Q2 6:00 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 7–3 |
| JAX | Q2 2:34 | 6 | 38 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| CLE | Q2 0:51 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–6 |
| JAX | Q2 0:10 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 7–6 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 34 | Punt | 7–6 |
| CLE | Q3 10:53 | 7 | 56 | Punt | 7–6 |
| JAX | Q3 6:15 | 5 | 35 | Punt | 7–6 |
| CLE | Q3 3:08 | 1 | 4 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| JAX | Q3 3:00 | 3 | 25 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| CLE | Q3 1:47 | 9 | 10 | Punt | 7–14 |
| JAX | Q4 12:34 | 12 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| CLE | Q4 5:54 | 4 | -10 | Punt | 7–21 |
| JAX | Q4 4:41 | 10 | 42 | Field goal | 7–24 |
| CLE | Q4 0:44 | 3 | 22 | End of half | 7–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 18/23 | 161 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Kirby | 22 | 71 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 2 | 36 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Rashaan Salaam | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| George Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrin Chiaverini | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 3 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Irv Smith | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| David Dunn | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 12/14 | 113 | 1 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 12/19 | 109 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 23 | 58 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Jay Fiedler | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chris Howard | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Tavian Banks | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan McCardell | 7 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 6 | 13 | 62 | 0 |
| Tavian Banks | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| James Stewart | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.7%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+6.32