Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 6–5 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. BUF are 4-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 19/41 | 210 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 5 | 57 | 11.4 | 1 |
| Doug Flutie | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin R. Williams | 4 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 3 | 8 | 54 | 1 |
| Peerless Price | 2 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 2 | 10 | 23 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.40
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.