Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
BUF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53 points. BUF are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 14:43 | 6 | 31 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 11:35 | 4 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 9:16 | 11 | 63 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| BUF | Q1 3:29 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LV | Q1 2:21 | 12 | 68 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| BUF | Q2 10:14 | 7 | 20 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LV | Q2 6:59 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 13–7 |
| BUF | Q2 5:12 | 4 | 33 | Turnover | 13–7 |
| LV | Q2 3:49 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–7 |
| BUF | Q2 1:51 | 6 | 32 | Turnover on downs | 13–7 |
| LV | Q2 0:52 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 13–7 |
| BUF | Q2 0:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–7 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 72 | Touchdown | 20–7 |
| BUF | Q3 10:17 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 20–7 |
| LV | Q3 8:52 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 20–7 |
| BUF | Q3 5:45 | 7 | 41 | Punt | 20–7 |
| LV | Q3 3:02 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 20–7 |
| BUF | Q3 0:48 | 5 | 49 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| LV | Q4 13:29 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 20–14 |
| BUF | Q4 11:02 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 20–14 |
| LV | Q4 7:33 | 15 | 58 | Missed field goal | 20–14 |
| BUF | Q4 0:59 | 8 | 48 | Turnover | 20–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 19/41 | 210 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 5 | 57 | 11.4 | 1 |
| Doug Flutie | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin R. Williams | 4 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 3 | 8 | 54 | 1 |
| Peerless Price | 2 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 2 | 10 | 23 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.40
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.