2016 · Week 13

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

24·38

Raiders

Oakland

QB Derek Carr

Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

OAK -3

Total

48.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

OAK perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

BUF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53 points. OAK are 8-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BUF @ LV33–30BUF
2023 · W2LV @ BUF10–38BUF
2020 · W4BUF @ LV30–23BUF
2017 · W8OAK @ BUF14–34BUF
2014 · W16BUF @ OAK24–26RAIDERS
2011 · W2OAK @ BUF35–38BUF
2008 · W3OAK @ BUF23–24BUF
2005 · W7BUF @ OAK17–38RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–OAK
LVQ1 15:00610Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:12972Field goal3–0
LVQ1 8:02851Field goal3–3
BUFQ1 4:351180Touchdown10–3
LVQ2 13:28420Punt10–3
BUFQ2 10:37618Punt10–3
LVQ2 7:201130Field goal10–6
BUFQ2 2:56622Punt10–6
LVQ2 0:30457Field goal10–9
BUFQ3 15:00266Touchdown17–9
LVQ3 14:0331Punt17–9
BUFQ3 13:111149Touchdown24–9
LVQ3 9:01975Touchdown24–16
BUFQ3 5:1736Punt24–16
LVQ3 4:00538Touchdown24–23
BUFQ3 0:5730Punt24–23
LVQ4 14:48559Touchdown24–30
BUFQ4 14:0832Punt24–30
LVQ4 13:06526Punt24–30
BUFQ4 10:5310Turnover24–30
LVQ4 10:45416Touchdown24–38
BUFQ4 8:341453Turnover24–38
LVQ4 3:20616Punt24–38
BUFQ4 0:18314End of half24–38

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor18/3519101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy171307.60
Mike Gillislee8496.12
Tyrod Taylor33010.01
Reggie Bush133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
LeSean McCoy77610
Sammy Watkins39380
Marquise Goodwin48350
Justin Hunter14220
Gerald Christian12140
Brandon Tate11130
Nick O'Leary1380
Dezmin Lewis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.56

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.