Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 6–5 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. OAK are 7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 18/35 | 191 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 17 | 130 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 8 | 49 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 7 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 9 | 38 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 4 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Gerald Christian | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Dezmin Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.56
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.