Closing spread
BUF -10
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
BUF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53 points. BUF are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 20 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q1 12:40 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:08 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q1 10:11 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 6:16 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q1 3:39 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 2:09 | 4 | 25 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| BUF | Q1 0:31 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LV | Q2 14:06 | 5 | 10 | Turnover | 6–0 |
| BUF | Q2 11:37 | 3 | 23 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| LV | Q2 10:30 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 6–7 |
| BUF | Q2 8:15 | 8 | 11 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| LV | Q2 4:45 | 5 | 27 | Field goal | 9–7 |
| BUF | Q2 1:56 | 5 | 15 | Turnover | 9–7 |
| LV | Q2 0:40 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 9–7 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 51 | Missed field goal | 9–7 |
| LV | Q3 11:37 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 9–7 |
| BUF | Q3 9:35 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 9–7 |
| LV | Q3 8:41 | 3 | 13 | Touchdown | 16–7 |
| BUF | Q3 7:30 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 16–7 |
| LV | Q3 5:19 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 16–7 |
| BUF | Q3 1:54 | 17 | 106 | Touchdown | 16–14 |
| LV | Q4 7:59 | 3 | 84 | Touchdown | 23–14 |
| BUF | Q4 6:23 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 23–21 |
| LV | Q4 4:03 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 23–21 |
| BUF | Q4 2:29 | 6 | 46 | Field goal | 23–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 24/39 | 279 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 23 | 83 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.10
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.