Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+0.6est.
LV perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Billsedge mapRaiders
- +0.300EPA / play-0.029
- 41.8%Success rate43.1%
- +0.597EPA / dropback+0.027
- -0.263EPA / rush-0.083
- 14.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- +8.14CPOE+0.71
- 33.3%Third-down rate41.7%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 3.07Points / drive2.44
- 0.0%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LV lead 6–5 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. LV are 7-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.71
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.59