2026 · Week 6

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

33·30

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Kirk Cousins

Allegiant Stadium · dome

Closing spread

BUF -5.5

Total

53.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapRaiders
  • +0.175EPA / play+0.046
  • 49.0%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.296EPA / dropback+0.212
  • +0.013EPA / rush-0.233
  • 12.5%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +3.91CPOE+0.10
  • 44.9%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 71.7%Red-zone TD rate60.7%
  • 3.13Points / drive2.60
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

BUF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53 points. LV are 8-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2LV @ BUF10–38BUF
2020 · W4BUF @ LV30–23BUF
2017 · W8OAK @ BUF14–34BUF
2016 · W13BUF @ OAK24–38RAIDERS
2014 · W16BUF @ OAK24–26RAIDERS
2011 · W2OAK @ BUF35–38BUF
2008 · W3OAK @ BUF23–24BUF
2005 · W7BUF @ OAK17–38RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–LV
BUFQ1 15:00830Field goal3–0
LVQ1 10:121064Touchdown3–7
BUFQ1 4:27963Field goal6–7
LVQ2 14:4536Punt6–7
BUFQ2 13:011090Touchdown13–7
LVQ2 7:13961Field goal13–10
BUFQ2 2:143-7Punt13–10
LVQ2 1:40839Field goal13–13
LVQ3 15:0030Punt13–13
BUFQ3 14:25947Field goal16–13
LVQ3 9:452-2Turnover16–13
BUFQ3 8:54814Touchdown23–13
LVQ3 6:221675Field goal23–16
BUFQ4 13:32416Punt23–16
LVQ4 11:56991Touchdown23–23
BUFQ4 8:07766Touchdown30–23
LVQ4 4:4330Punt30–23
BUFQ4 4:08729Field goal33–23
LVQ4 1:56344Touchdown33–30
BUFQ4 1:3200End of half33–30

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen23/3325520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook22954.31
Ray Davis144.00
Ty Johnson133.00
Josh Allen510.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keon Coleman46591
James Cook33580
Dalton Kincaid78380
Josh Palmer12370
Khalil Shakir46341
Ty Johnson22240
Ray Davis1150
Dawson Knox1100
Skyler Bell0100

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins23/4131321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Washington Jr.9434.80
Ashton Jeanty10222.21
Dylan Laube100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tre Tucker57972
Michael Mayer79950
Brock Bowers49700
Ashton Jeanty46360
Jalen Nailor1490
Mike Washington Jr.1170
Cody White0200
Dylan Laube11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.8%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.48