Closing spread
BUF -7
Total
42
Model margin
+2.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
4.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 6–5 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. OAK are 7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 32/49 | 329 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 9 | 12 | 93 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 7 | 75 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 7 | 9 | 52 | 1 |
| Chris Hogan | 3 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 4 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| MarQueis Gray | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.30
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.