Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutJacoby FordWRHamstring· DNP
- OutLouis MurphyWRGroin· DNP
- OutMichael MitchellSKnee· DNP
- QuestionableDarrius Heyward-BeyWRKnee· DNP
- QuestionableKevin BossTEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableMichael HuffSGroin· Limited
- QuestionableRichard SeymourDTRibs· Limited
- QuestionableStephon HeyerTKnee· Limited
- ProbableChris JohnsonCBGroin· Full
- ProbableDarren McFaddenRBShoulder· Full
- ProbableJarvis MossDEFoot· Full
- ProbableJason CampbellQBFoot· Full
- ProbableJoe PorterCBConcussion· Full
Bills
- OutMarcus EasleyWRIllness· DNP
- OutRobert EddinsLBFoot· DNP
- OutTerrence McGeeCBHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulTorell TroupDTBack· Limited
- ProbableArthur MoatsLBKnee· Full
- ProbableSteve JohnsonWRGroin· Full
Win probability
- Bills
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
BUF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53 points. BUF are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 13:22 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:17 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 9:19 | 9 | 42 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 3:58 | 14 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q2 11:33 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 10:39 | 5 | 34 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| BUF | Q2 8:08 | 10 | 68 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| LV | Q2 2:22 | 5 | 82 | Touchdown | 21–3 |
| BUF | Q2 1:22 | 8 | 44 | Missed field goal | 21–3 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 63 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| LV | Q3 13:26 | 11 | 43 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| BUF | Q3 7:09 | 7 | 57 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| LV | Q3 3:41 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 21–17 |
| BUF | Q3 2:30 | 8 | 64 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| LV | Q4 14:10 | 9 | 90 | Touchdown | 28–24 |
| BUF | Q4 9:18 | 10 | 76 | Touchdown | 28–31 |
| LV | Q4 4:48 | 5 | 88 | Touchdown | 35–31 |
| BUF | Q4 3:41 | 15 | 66 | Touchdown | 35–38 |
| LV | Q4 0:14 | 3 | 24 | Turnover | 35–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 28/46 | 264 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 15 | 117 | 7.8 | 2 |
| C.J. Spiller | 4 | 63 | 15.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 8 | 14 | 96 | 1 |
| David Nelson | 10 | 13 | 83 | 1 |
| Donald Jones | 4 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ruvell Martin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.91
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.