Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 6–5 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. BUF are 4-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 28/46 | 264 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 15 | 117 | 7.8 | 2 |
| C.J. Spiller | 4 | 63 | 15.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 8 | 14 | 96 | 1 |
| David Nelson | 10 | 13 | 83 | 1 |
| Donald Jones | 4 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ruvell Martin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.91
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.