2023 · Week 2

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

10·38

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors

Closing spread

BUF -7.5

Total

47

Model margin

+3.6est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Bills

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapBills
  • -0.086EPA / play+0.097
  • 41.5%Success rate48.4%
  • -0.045EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.151EPA / rush+0.010
  • 5.9%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -3.79CPOE+4.96
  • 35.2%Third-down rate49.7%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.66Points / drive2.33
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

BUF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53 points. BUF are 4-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BUF @ LV33–30BUF
2020 · W4BUF @ LV30–23BUF
2017 · W8OAK @ BUF14–34BUF
2016 · W13BUF @ OAK24–38RAIDERS
2014 · W16BUF @ OAK24–26RAIDERS
2011 · W2OAK @ BUF35–38BUF
2008 · W3OAK @ BUF23–24BUF
2005 · W7BUF @ OAK17–38RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–BUF
LVQ1 15:00575Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 12:1635Punt7–0
LVQ1 10:22414Turnover7–0
BUFQ1 8:17728Touchdown7–7
LVQ1 4:1935Punt7–7
BUFQ1 3:161259Touchdown7–14
LVQ2 12:10946Field goal10–14
BUFQ2 6:48752Turnover on downs10–14
LVQ2 2:5637Punt10–14
BUFQ2 1:47957Touchdown10–21
LVQ2 0:18213End of half10–21
BUFQ3 15:001575Touchdown10–28
LVQ3 5:59423Turnover10–28
BUFQ3 3:49842Field goal10–31
LVQ4 14:56412Punt10–31
BUFQ4 12:401395Touchdown10–38
LVQ4 5:08645Turnover10–38
BUFQ4 2:19239End of half10–38

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo16/2418512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tre Tucker13434.00
Zamir White4225.50
Jimmy Garoppolo111.00
Josh Jacobs9-2-0.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams68841
Josh Jacobs56510
Hunter Renfrow11230
Austin Hooper22200
Ameer Abdullah1350
Michael Mayer1120
DeAndre Carter0100
Tre Tucker0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen31/3727430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook171237.20
Damien Harris7334.71
Latavius Murray6223.71
Josh Allen372.30
Kyle Allen2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gabe Davis67921
Stefon Diggs77660
Dalton Kincaid56430
James Cook44360
Khalil Shakir11111
Dawson Knox35101
Latavius Murray2290
Deonte Harty2340
Reggie Gilliam1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.39
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.57