Closing spread
BUF -7.5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play+0.097
- 41.5%Success rate48.4%
- -0.045EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.151EPA / rush+0.010
- 5.9%Explosive rate8.5%
- -3.79CPOE+4.96
- 35.2%Third-down rate49.7%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.66Points / drive2.33
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LV lead 6–5 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. BUF are 4-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 16/24 | 185 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 34 | 34.0 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 9 | -2 | -0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 6 | 8 | 84 | 1 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 31/37 | 274 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 17 | 123 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kyle Allen | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Davis | 6 | 7 | 92 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| James Cook | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 5 | 10 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.55
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.39
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.57