Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
53
Model margin
-2.0est.
LV perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.169EPA / play+0.066
- 50.4%Success rate47.4%
- +0.298EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.067
- 10.7%Explosive rate10.3%
- +6.29CPOE+2.18
- 49.9%Third-down rate45.5%
- 68.4%Red-zone TD rate59.9%
- 2.78Points / drive2.49
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LV lead 6–5 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. LV are 7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 24/34 | 288 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 18 | 56 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 7 | 115 | 0 |
| John Brown | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 5 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 32/44 | 311 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 9 | 11 | 88 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 5 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| Zay Jones | 4 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| Jalen Richard | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.6%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.04