2020 · Week 4

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

30·23

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

BUF -3

Total

53

Model margin

-2.0est.

LV perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapRaiders
  • +0.169EPA / play+0.066
  • 50.4%Success rate47.4%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback+0.155
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.067
  • 10.7%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +6.29CPOE+2.18
  • 49.9%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 68.4%Red-zone TD rate59.9%
  • 2.78Points / drive2.49
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

BUF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53 points. LV are 8-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BUF @ LV33–30BUF
2023 · W2LV @ BUF10–38BUF
2017 · W8OAK @ BUF14–34BUF
2016 · W13BUF @ OAK24–38RAIDERS
2014 · W16BUF @ OAK24–26RAIDERS
2011 · W2OAK @ BUF35–38BUF
2008 · W3OAK @ BUF23–24BUF
2005 · W7BUF @ OAK17–38RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–LV
BUFQ1 15:00870Touchdown7–0
LVQ1 10:371148Field goal7–3
BUFQ1 5:021170Touchdown14–3
LVQ2 14:481259Field goal14–6
BUFQ2 9:381044Field goal17–6
LVQ2 4:131075Touchdown17–13
BUFQ2 0:1300End of half17–13
LVQ3 15:001173Field goal17–16
BUFQ3 8:361039Punt17–16
LVQ3 5:0456Punt17–16
BUFQ3 2:23645Touchdown23–16
LVQ4 14:49639Turnover23–16
BUFQ4 12:28460Touchdown30–16
LVQ4 11:1749Turnover on downs30–16
BUFQ4 9:4752Punt30–16
LVQ4 7:20540Turnover30–16
BUFQ4 5:2130Punt30–16
LVQ4 3:31934Touchdown30–23
BUFQ4 1:2929End of half30–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen24/3428820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary18563.11
Isaiah McKenzie2115.50
Josh Allen3-1-0.31
Andre Roberts1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs671150
John Brown45420
Cole Beasley34321
Gabe Davis11261
Devin Singletary56210
Isaiah McKenzie11180
Dawson Knox23160
Tyler Kroft13120
Andre Roberts1160
T.J. Yeldon0100

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr32/4431120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs15483.20
Derek Carr4205.00
Theo Riddick2136.50
Jalen Richard166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Waller911880
Hunter Renfrow58570
Nelson Agholor44441
Zay Jones47320
Josh Jacobs34250
Jason Witten22181
Jalen Richard24100
Foster Moreau1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.6%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.04