Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
47
Model margin
+0.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutDavid AmersonCBFoot· DNP
- OutGareon ConleyCBShin· DNP
- DoubtfulKarl JosephSGroin· DNP
- QuestionableCory JamesLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableMarquel LeeLBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMarquette KingPright Groin· Limited
- QuestionableMarshall NewhouseTFoot· Limited
- QuestionableNicholas MorrowLBAnkle· Limited
Bills
- OutCharles ClayTEKnee· DNP
- OutE.J. GainesCBHamstring· DNP
- OutRamon HumberLBThumb· DNP
- QuestionableJordan PoyerSKnee· DNP
- QuestionableRichie IncognitoGAnkle· Limited
- DNPKyle WilliamsDTNot Injury Related
- DNPLeSean McCoyRBNot Injury Related
- DNPLogan ThomasTENot Injury Related
- DNPLorenzo AlexanderLBNot Injury Related
Win probability
- Bills
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
BUF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53 points. BUF are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 14:52 | 1 | 4 | Touchdown | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 14:08 | 11 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 9:28 | 12 | 35 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 3:23 | 5 | 50 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 1:35 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 0:11 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q2 13:26 | 9 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 8:46 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 7–7 |
| BUF | Q2 4:53 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 2:01 | 5 | 38 | Opp touchdown | 7–14 |
| LV | Q2 0:32 | 4 | 27 | End of half | 7–14 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–14 |
| BUF | Q3 13:06 | 4 | 7 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| LV | Q3 11:44 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| BUF | Q3 10:41 | 5 | 15 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| LV | Q3 8:18 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–20 |
| BUF | Q3 7:16 | 14 | 100 | Touchdown | 7–27 |
| LV | Q4 14:57 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| BUF | Q4 10:50 | 9 | 28 | Punt | 14–27 |
| LV | Q4 4:54 | 6 | 29 | Turnover on downs | 14–33 |
| BUF | Q4 3:21 | 1 | 48 | Touchdown | 14–34 |
| LV | Q4 3:12 | 8 | 44 | Turnover | 14–34 |
| BUF | Q4 1:33 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 14–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 20/27 | 165 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 27 | 151 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 6 | 1 | 0.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Holmes | 3 | 4 | 51 | 1 |
| Zay Jones | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.39
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.