Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
47
Model margin
+0.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 6–5 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. BUF are 4-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 20/27 | 165 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 27 | 151 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 6 | 1 | 0.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Holmes | 3 | 4 | 51 | 1 |
| Zay Jones | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.39
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.