1999 · Week 6

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Doug Pederson

20·16

Bears

Chicago

QB Cade McNown

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

CHI -6.5

Total

35

Model margin

+0.7est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBears
  • -0.192EPA / play-0.102
  • 33.4%Success rate38.6%
  • -0.199EPA / dropback-0.043
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.228
  • 6.4%Explosive rate7.4%
  • 31.2%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 46.7%Red-zone TD rate44.0%
  • 0.90Points / drive1.03
  • 3.6%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.098EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CHI are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3PHI @ CHI7–27CHI
2025 · W13CHI @ PHI24–15CHI
2022 · W15PHI @ CHI25–20PHI
2019 · W9CHI @ PHI14–22PHI
2018 · playoffsPHI @ CHI16–15PHI
2017 · W12CHI @ PHI3–31PHI
2016 · W2PHI @ CHI29–14PHI
2013 · W16CHI @ PHI11–54PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:2838Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 12:091033Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 7:19564Touchdown7–3
CHIQ1 5:3434Punt7–3
PHIQ1 4:311058Field goal10–3
CHIQ2 14:18728Field goal10–6
PHIQ2 9:561070Touchdown17–6
CHIQ2 5:23413Turnover17–6
PHIQ2 3:323-4Field goal20–6
CHIQ2 2:39628Turnover20–6
PHIQ2 1:12732Turnover20–6
CHIQ2 0:19210Missed field goal20–6
PHIQ3 15:00628Punt20–6
CHIQ3 13:27284Touchdown20–13
PHIQ3 12:41715Punt20–13
CHIQ3 9:10947Punt20–13
PHIQ3 5:1336Punt20–13
CHIQ3 4:0032Punt20–13
PHIQ3 2:3839Punt20–13
CHIQ3 0:30625Punt20–13
PHIQ4 11:5531Punt20–13
CHIQ4 10:58520Field goal20–16
PHIQ4 7:4037Punt20–16
CHIQ4 6:02652Turnover on downs20–16
PHIQ4 3:2335Punt20–16
CHIQ4 2:493-2Punt20–16
PHIQ4 2:14319End of half20–16

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Pederson22/3822820
Torrance Small0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley231014.40
Cecil Martin100.00
Doug Pederson2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dietrich Jells23691
Torrance Small612500
Duce Staley46370
Charles Johnson49300
Luther Broughton23181
Na Brown12120
Jed Weaver11110
Cecil Martin2210

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cade McNown17/3325512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Enis24863.60
Cade McNown4235.80
Glyn Milburn144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcus Robinson4111361
Bobby Engram612590
Edgar Bennett33220
Ryan Wetnight22190
Alonzo Mayes11160
John Allred1130
D'Wayne Bates0100
Macey Brooks0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

4.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.11
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.80
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.65