Closing spread
CHI -6.5
Total
35
Model margin
+0.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.192EPA / play-0.102
- 33.4%Success rate38.6%
- -0.199EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.228
- 6.4%Explosive rate7.4%
- 31.2%Third-down rate37.0%
- 46.7%Red-zone TD rate44.0%
- 0.90Points / drive1.03
- 3.6%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.098EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 41 points. CHI are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Pederson | 22/38 | 228 | 2 | 0 |
| Torrance Small | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 23 | 101 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dietrich Jells | 2 | 3 | 69 | 1 |
| Torrance Small | 6 | 12 | 50 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 4 | 9 | 30 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 2 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Na Brown | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade McNown | 17/33 | 255 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Enis | 24 | 86 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 4 | 11 | 136 | 1 |
| Bobby Engram | 6 | 12 | 59 | 0 |
| Edgar Bennett | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Alonzo Mayes | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| John Allred | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.80
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.65