Closing spread
STL -6
Total
45
Model margin
+2.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 51.4 points. ATL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 10/18 | 168 | 1 | 1 |
| Tony Graziani | 10/18 | 126 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Oxendine | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Byron Hanspard | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terance Mathis | 7 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 2 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Byron Hanspard | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Ken Oxendine | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Chris Calloway | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| O.J. Santiago | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.42
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.