1999 · Week 6 · Division
Final
Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
WAS -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-2.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.098EPA / play-0.176
- 44.4%Success rate35.9%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.148
- +0.036EPA / rush-0.226
- 10.8%Explosive rate5.9%
- 36.2%Third-down rate33.3%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.78Points / drive0.87
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 14–4 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. ARI are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 24/40 | 248 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 18 | 91 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Brian Mitchell | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Connell | 8 | 14 | 110 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 2 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Brown | 8/20 | 117 | 1 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 12/23 | 99 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Murrell | 15 | 51 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Dave Brown | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| David Boston | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Sanders | 3 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| David Boston | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 7 | 9 | 20 | 0 |
| Mac Cody | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Rob Moore | 1 | 9 | 10 | 1 |
| Terry Hardy | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.4%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-2.12