1999 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Brad Johnson

24·10

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

WAS -3.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-2.1est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.098EPA / play-0.176
  • 44.4%Success rate35.9%
  • +0.143EPA / dropback-0.148
  • +0.036EPA / rush-0.226
  • 10.8%Explosive rate5.9%
  • 36.2%Third-down rate33.3%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 1.78Points / drive0.87
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.8%
  • -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 14–4 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. ARI are 8-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4WAS @ ARI42–14WAS
2023 · W1ARI @ WAS16–20WAS
2020 · W2WAS @ ARI15–30ARI
2018 · W1WAS @ ARI24–6WAS
2017 · W15ARI @ WAS15–20WAS
2016 · W13WAS @ ARI23–31ARI
2014 · W6WAS @ ARI20–30ARI
2011 · W2ARI @ WAS21–22WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–ARI
WASQ1 15:00639Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 12:1735Punt0–0
WASQ1 10:50515Punt0–0
ARIQ1 9:201237Field goal0–3
WASQ1 3:15414Punt0–3
ARIQ1 1:07844Missed field goal0–3
WASQ2 12:301159Field goal3–3
ARIQ2 7:5032Punt3–3
WASQ2 6:36416Turnover3–3
ARIQ2 4:32415Opp touchdown10–3
WASQ2 3:3300Opp touchdown10–3
ARIQ2 3:3334Turnover10–3
WASQ2 2:4939Punt10–3
ARIQ2 1:58416Punt10–3
WASQ2 0:30451Missed field goal10–3
ARIQ3 15:003-3Punt10–3
WASQ3 13:3339Punt10–3
ARIQ3 11:0737Punt10–3
ARIQ3 9:2737Punt10–3
WASQ3 8:031285Touchdown17–3
ARIQ3 1:2010Turnover17–3
WASQ3 0:591147Punt17–3
ARIQ4 9:31991Touchdown17–10
WASQ4 6:593-5Punt17–10
ARIQ4 5:5831Punt17–10
WASQ4 5:16871Touchdown24–10
ARIQ4 2:03948Turnover on downs24–10
WASQ4 0:0500End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson24/4024812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis18915.10
Skip Hicks9455.01
Brian Mitchell199.00
Brad Johnson221.00
Michael Westbrook122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Albert Connell8141100
Michael Westbrook36250
Irving Fryar23200
Stephen Alexander23181
Mike Sellers12170
Skip Hicks12130
Brian Mitchell1290
Stephen Davis1220

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dave Brown8/2011711
Jake Plummer12/239902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Murrell15513.40
Michael Pittman2157.50
Dave Brown166.00
David Boston1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Sanders38680
David Boston34440
Michael Pittman22330
Adrian Murrell79200
Mac Cody12160
Rob Moore19101
Terry Hardy1370

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.4%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-2.12