Closing spread
SEA -2.5
Total
38
Model margin
-0.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.010EPA / play-0.070
- 40.3%Success rate39.0%
- +0.116EPA / dropback+0.010
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.193
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.7%
- 41.4%Third-down rate33.0%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
- 1.59Points / drive1.40
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.138EPA / play allowed-0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–4 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.7 points. SEA are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 38 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 12:30 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 9:40 | 9 | 45 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| BUF | Q1 5:47 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q1 5:12 | 6 | 28 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| BUF | Q1 1:39 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| SEA | Q1 0:53 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–13 |
| BUF | Q2 14:20 | 8 | 48 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| SEA | Q2 10:07 | 6 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–20 |
| BUF | Q2 7:36 | 10 | 16 | Punt | 0–20 |
| SEA | Q2 2:12 | 8 | 49 | Field goal | 0–23 |
| BUF | Q2 0:17 | 1 | 26 | Field goal | 3–23 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 3–23 |
| SEA | Q3 11:35 | 6 | 41 | Punt | 3–23 |
| BUF | Q3 9:02 | 16 | 80 | Touchdown | 9–23 |
| SEA | Q3 1:59 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 9–23 |
| BUF | Q3 1:55 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 9–23 |
| SEA | Q3 0:56 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 9–23 |
| BUF | Q4 13:24 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 9–23 |
| SEA | Q4 12:25 | 4 | 45 | Field goal | 9–26 |
| BUF | Q4 10:02 | 10 | 73 | Touchdown | 16–26 |
| SEA | Q4 7:32 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 16–26 |
| BUF | Q4 5:52 | 4 | 18 | Turnover | 16–26 |
| SEA | Q4 5:10 | 7 | 13 | Punt | 16–26 |
| BUF | Q4 2:26 | 5 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 16–26 |
| SEA | Q4 1:49 | 1 | 10 | Turnover on downs | 16–26 |
| BUF | Q4 0:25 | 4 | 26 | End of half | 16–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 24/50 | 294 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peerless Price | 5 | 10 | 106 | 1 |
| Kamil Loud | 5 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Kevin R. Williams | 4 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 4 | 12 | 31 | 0 |
| Bobby Collins | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Sheldon Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 17/30 | 276 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 22 | 75 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mayes | 6 | 7 | 105 | 2 |
| Sean Dawkins | 4 | 10 | 91 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.51