Closing spread
SEA -4
Total
38
Model margin
+0.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.035
- 40.7%Success rate44.4%
- -0.012EPA / dropback+0.090
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.040
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.3%
- 35.8%Third-down rate37.2%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.71Points / drive1.81
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.135EPA / play allowed+0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–4 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.7 points. SEA are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 25/37 | 275 | 1 | 3 |
| J.P. Losman | 1/1 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 28 | 116 | 4.1 | 4 |
| Lee Evans | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burns | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Smith | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 19/38 | 185 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.80