Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Total
39
Model margin
+1.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play-0.062
- 38.9%Success rate39.3%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.115
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- 36.1%Third-down rate34.4%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.20Points / drive1.05
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.0%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed+0.039
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–4 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.7 points. BUF are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 30 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:10 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 8:02 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 6:29 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 5:03 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 4:07 | 4 | 16 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q1 2:14 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q1 1:06 | 13 | 82 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| BUF | Q2 9:10 | 3 | 68 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| SEA | Q2 7:40 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–7 |
| BUF | Q2 6:24 | 13 | 63 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| SEA | Q2 0:19 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 10–10 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 70 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| BUF | Q3 10:41 | 12 | 64 | Field goal | 17–13 |
| SEA | Q3 4:52 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–13 |
| BUF | Q3 2:55 | 12 | 59 | Missed field goal | 17–13 |
| SEA | Q4 11:30 | 10 | 45 | Field goal | 20–13 |
| BUF | Q4 5:22 | 4 | 3 | Turnover | 20–13 |
| SEA | Q4 4:14 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 23–13 |
| BUF | Q4 3:12 | 7 | 74 | Touchdown | 23–20 |
| SEA | Q4 1:23 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 23–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 16/23 | 134 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 25 | 93 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Darrell Jackson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Christian Fauria | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Charlie Rogers | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Van Pelt | 28/42 | 316 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peerless Price | 10 | 15 | 138 | 1 |
| Eric Moulds | 4 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Shawn Bryson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.84