Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
38.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.050
- 37.8%Success rate44.2%
- -0.022EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.059
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- -5.09CPOE+1.44
- 31.4%Third-down rate40.4%
- 54.9%Red-zone TD rate44.7%
- 1.56Points / drive1.59
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–4 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.7 points. BUF are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 12:36 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 12:05 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:03 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 9:35 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 8:32 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 6:53 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 5:23 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 4:04 | 4 | 52 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 2:44 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 0:22 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q2 14:04 | 7 | 13 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q2 10:39 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q2 7:44 | 3 | 8 | Opp touchdown | 0–14 |
| SEA | Q2 6:20 | 5 | 40 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| BUF | Q2 4:45 | 8 | 63 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| SEA | Q2 1:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–17 |
| BUF | Q2 0:34 | 3 | 27 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 48 | Punt | 7–20 |
| BUF | Q3 9:43 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 7–20 |
| SEA | Q3 7:38 | 4 | 25 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| BUF | Q3 6:42 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–27 |
| SEA | Q3 2:21 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 10–33 |
| BUF | Q3 2:09 | 1 | 30 | Touchdown | 10–34 |
| SEA | Q3 2:01 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 10–34 |
| BUF | Q3 0:07 | 6 | 21 | Missed field goal | 10–34 |
| SEA | Q4 11:23 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 10–34 |
| BUF | Q4 10:29 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–34 |
| SEA | Q4 8:08 | 12 | 72 | Turnover on downs | 10–34 |
| BUF | Q4 4:04 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–34 |
| SEA | Q4 1:50 | 4 | 32 | Turnover | 10–34 |
| BUF | Q4 0:35 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/41 | 190 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 19/30 | 215 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 18 | 76 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.47
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.45
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.46