Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
38.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.050
- 37.8%Success rate44.2%
- -0.022EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.059
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- -5.09CPOE+1.44
- 31.4%Third-down rate40.4%
- 54.9%Red-zone TD rate44.7%
- 1.56Points / drive1.59
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–4 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.7 points. BUF are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/41 | 190 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 19/30 | 215 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 18 | 76 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.47
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.45
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.46