Closing spread
SEA -4.5
Total
44
Model margin
-0.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Seahawks
- OutCharly MartinWRCalf· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutMarcus TrufantCBHamstring· DNP
- OutWalter ThurmondCBHamstring· DNP
- ProbableMarshawn LynchRBBack· Limited
- ProbableKam ChancellorSGroin· Full
- ProbableRed BryantDEFoot· Full
- ProbableSidney RiceWRFoot· Full
Bills
- OutEric WoodCKnee· DNP
- OutFred JacksonRBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableAndy LevitreGKnee· Limited
- QuestionableDonald JonesWRCalf· Limited
- QuestionableJairus ByrdSShin· Limited
- QuestionableJustin RogersCBFoot· Limited
- QuestionableLeodis McKelvinCBGroin· Limited
- QuestionableMarcell DareusDEShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableMark AndersonDEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableNick BarnettLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableSpencer JohnsonDTKnee· Limited
- ProbableChris WhiteLBThumb· Limited
- ProbableAaron WilliamsCBKnee· Full
- ProbableC.J. SpillerRBShoulder· Full
- ProbableDa'Norris SearcySHand· Full
- ProbableKraig UrbikGKnee· Full
- ProbableKyle WilliamsDTAnkle· Full
- ProbableLee SmithTEKnee· Full
- ProbableMario WilliamsDEWrist· Full
- ProbableRon BrooksCBHip· Full
- ProbableScott ChandlerTEGroin· Full
Win probability
- Bills
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play-0.007
- 45.2%Success rate42.3%
- +0.213EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.021
- 11.2%Explosive rate10.0%
- +5.50CPOE-1.57
- 39.8%Third-down rate39.8%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 2.17Points / drive1.58
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–4 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.7 points. BUF are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 10:00 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 8:29 | 5 | 58 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| BUF | Q1 5:46 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| SEA | Q1 0:34 | 6 | 65 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| BUF | Q2 12:03 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–7 |
| SEA | Q2 11:14 | 3 | 58 | Touchdown | 24–7 |
| BUF | Q2 10:10 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 24–7 |
| SEA | Q2 8:37 | 6 | 72 | Touchdown | 31–7 |
| BUF | Q2 5:31 | 9 | 82 | Touchdown | 31–14 |
| SEA | Q2 1:10 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 31–14 |
| BUF | Q2 0:41 | 4 | 43 | Field goal | 31–17 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 31–17 |
| SEA | Q3 12:58 | 2 | 20 | Touchdown | 37–17 |
| BUF | Q3 12:18 | 7 | 16 | Turnover | 37–17 |
| SEA | Q3 7:51 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 40–17 |
| BUF | Q3 7:29 | 3 | 6 | Opp touchdown | 47–17 |
| BUF | Q3 6:13 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 47–17 |
| SEA | Q3 3:34 | 17 | 98 | Field goal | 50–17 |
| BUF | Q4 9:17 | 10 | 48 | Turnover on downs | 50–17 |
| SEA | Q4 4:37 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 50–17 |
| BUF | Q4 1:52 | 6 | 36 | End of half | 50–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 14/23 | 205 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 10 | 113 | 11.3 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 9 | 92 | 10.2 | 3 |
| Robert Turbin | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Rice | 4 | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 4 | 64 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/38 | 217 | 1 | 2 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 3/5 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 17 | 103 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 8 | 12 | 115 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 5 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 3 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Dorin Dickerson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Ruvell Martin | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 5 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.93