Closing spread
SEA -4.5
Total
44
Model margin
-0.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play-0.007
- 45.2%Success rate42.3%
- +0.213EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.021
- 11.2%Explosive rate10.0%
- +5.50CPOE-1.57
- 39.8%Third-down rate39.8%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 2.17Points / drive1.58
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–4 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.7 points. BUF are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 14/23 | 205 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 10 | 113 | 11.3 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 9 | 92 | 10.2 | 3 |
| Robert Turbin | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Rice | 4 | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 4 | 64 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/38 | 217 | 1 | 2 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 3/5 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 17 | 103 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 8 | 12 | 115 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 5 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 3 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Dorin Dickerson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Ruvell Martin | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 5 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.93