2000 · Week 17

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Doug Flutie

42·23

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Jon Kitna

Husky Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 41°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

42.5

Model margin

-3.2est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

6.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.059EPA / play-0.051
  • 39.9%Success rate40.0%
  • +0.029EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.203EPA / rush-0.089
  • 8.5%Explosive rate6.6%
  • 38.0%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate52.9%
  • 1.36Points / drive1.33
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.4%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.074

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 5–4 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.7 points. SEA are 3-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8BUF @ SEA31–10BUF
2020 · W9SEA @ BUF34–44BUF
2016 · W9BUF @ SEA25–31SEA
2012 · W15SEA @ BUF50–17SEA
2008 · W1SEA @ BUF10–34BUF
2004 · W12BUF @ SEA38–9BUF
2001 · W10SEA @ BUF23–20SEA
1999 · W7BUF @ SEA16–26SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:32758Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 10:20725Punt7–0
BUFQ1 7:40984Touchdown14–6
SEAQ1 3:2300Touchdown14–7
BUFQ1 3:08363Touchdown21–7
SEAQ1 1:291366Touchdown21–14
BUFQ2 9:401177Missed field goal21–14
SEAQ2 2:45430Turnover21–14
BUFQ2 1:58350Touchdown28–14
SEAQ2 1:09515Punt28–14
BUFQ3 15:0039Punt28–14
SEAQ3 12:431047Field goal28–17
BUFQ3 6:461178Touchdown35–17
SEAQ3 0:26624Turnover35–17
BUFQ4 13:23367Turnover35–17
SEAQ4 11:48580Touchdown35–23
BUFQ4 9:29680Touchdown42–23
SEAQ4 6:43719Turnover42–23
BUFQ4 3:29415Turnover42–23
SEAQ4 1:112-2Turnover42–23
BUFQ4 0:482-2End of half42–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Flutie20/2536630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antowain Smith171478.63
Doug Flutie8313.90
Shawn Bryson362.00
Peerless Price155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Peerless Price8101321
Eric Moulds451010
Jeremy McDaniel22550
Kwame Cavil11390
Jay Riemersma34241
Shawn Bryson11111
Antowain Smith1140

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna18/2919501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Watters17673.91
Shaun Alexander5428.40
Jon Kitna4174.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ricky Watters59470
Darrell Jackson34400
Karsten Bailey22340
Christian Fauria23260
Sean Dawkins24230
Derrick Mayes34230
Itula Mili0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

6.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.4%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.14
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-3.24