Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
-3.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.051
- 39.9%Success rate40.0%
- +0.029EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.089
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.6%
- 38.0%Third-down rate40.9%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate52.9%
- 1.36Points / drive1.33
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.074
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–4 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.7 points. SEA are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 20/25 | 366 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 17 | 147 | 8.6 | 3 |
| Doug Flutie | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peerless Price | 8 | 10 | 132 | 1 |
| Eric Moulds | 4 | 5 | 101 | 0 |
| Jeremy McDaniel | 2 | 2 | 55 | 0 |
| Kwame Cavil | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 3 | 4 | 24 | 1 |
| Shawn Bryson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Antowain Smith | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 18/29 | 195 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 17 | 67 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Shaun Alexander | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 5 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Karsten Bailey | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Derrick Mayes | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
6.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.4%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.14
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-3.24