2016 · Week 9

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

25·31

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SEA -5.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.056EPA / play+0.022
  • 44.9%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.076EPA / dropback+0.102
  • +0.028EPA / rush-0.126
  • 10.0%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +0.94CPOE+4.81
  • 41.7%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate41.8%
  • 2.08Points / drive1.88
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 5–4 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.7 points. SEA are 3-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8BUF @ SEA31–10BUF
2020 · W9SEA @ BUF34–44BUF
2012 · W15SEA @ BUF50–17SEA
2008 · W1SEA @ BUF10–34BUF
2004 · W12BUF @ SEA38–9BUF
2001 · W10SEA @ BUF23–20SEA
2000 · W17BUF @ SEA42–23BUF
1999 · W7BUF @ SEA16–26SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0037Punt6–0
BUFQ1 13:3613Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 13:32358Touchdown7–7
BUFQ1 12:211780Touchdown14–7
SEAQ1 2:21560Touchdown14–14
BUFQ2 14:541157Field goal17–14
SEAQ2 9:3249Punt17–14
BUFQ2 7:1841Punt17–14
SEAQ2 6:11531Touchdown17–21
BUFQ2 4:29418Punt17–21
SEAQ2 2:19673Touchdown17–28
BUFQ2 1:00550Missed field goal17–28
BUFQ3 15:00848Turnover17–28
SEAQ3 10:18718Punt17–28
BUFQ3 6:1513102Touchdown25–28
SEAQ4 14:261030Field goal25–31
BUFQ4 9:491241Punt25–31
SEAQ4 3:143-7Punt25–31
BUFQ4 2:41925Turnover on downs25–31
SEAQ4 0:1300End of half25–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor27/3828911
Jonathan Williams0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy21854.00
Tyrod Taylor8435.41
Mike Gillislee8324.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods10131620
Marquise Goodwin45430
LeSean McCoy45350
Reggie Bush22220
Charles Clay3490
Walt Powell1190
Justin Hunter1151
Mike Gillislee2240

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson20/2628220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Lockett11313.00
Russell Wilson3103.31
C.J. Prosise393.00
Christine Michael510.21

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham881032
Doug Baldwin66890
Jermaine Kearse24360
Tyler Lockett12170
Brandon Williams12160
Paul Richardson11150
C.J. Prosise1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.14