Closing spread
SEA -5.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.056EPA / play+0.022
- 44.9%Success rate44.0%
- +0.076EPA / dropback+0.102
- +0.028EPA / rush-0.126
- 10.0%Explosive rate8.7%
- +0.94CPOE+4.81
- 41.7%Third-down rate38.7%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate41.8%
- 2.08Points / drive1.88
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–4 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.7 points. SEA are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 27/38 | 289 | 1 | 1 |
| Jonathan Williams | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 21 | 85 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Mike Gillislee | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 10 | 13 | 162 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Walt Powell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Mike Gillislee | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/26 | 282 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
| C.J. Prosise | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 8 | 8 | 103 | 2 |
| Doug Baldwin | 6 | 6 | 89 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Brandon Williams | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.40
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.14