Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.186EPA / play-0.013
- 47.8%Success rate44.4%
- +0.298EPA / dropback+0.044
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.126
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.2%
- +0.64CPOE+4.61
- 45.6%Third-down rate37.5%
- 75.1%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 2.90Points / drive1.82
- 0.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–4 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.7 points. SEA are 3-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 24/34 | 283 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 17 | 111 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Ray Davis | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 9 | 10 | 107 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 5 | 7 | 70 | 1 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 4 | 7 | 31 | 1 |
| James Cook | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 21/29 | 212 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 9 | 12 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 6 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.50
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.80