Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
55
Model margin
+3.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play+0.169
- 48.8%Success rate50.4%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.081
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.7%
- +6.78CPOE+6.29
- 39.6%Third-down rate49.9%
- 72.6%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- 2.52Points / drive2.78
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 5–4 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.7 points. BUF are 6-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 28/41 | 390 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeeJay Dallas | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Travis Homer | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Alex Collins | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 7 | 9 | 108 | 1 |
| David Moore | 4 | 6 | 71 | 1 |
| Travis Homer | 3 | 3 | 64 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 5 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 31/38 | 415 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 9 | 12 | 118 | 0 |
| John Brown | 8 | 11 | 99 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 4 | 5 | 70 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 1 | 25 | 1 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
6.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.49