2020 · Week 9

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

34·44

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · astroturf · 69°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

55

Model margin

+3.5est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

6.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBills
  • +0.105EPA / play+0.169
  • 48.8%Success rate50.4%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.013EPA / rush-0.081
  • 8.6%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +6.78CPOE+6.29
  • 39.6%Third-down rate49.9%
  • 72.6%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
  • 2.52Points / drive2.78
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 5–4 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.7 points. BUF are 6-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8BUF @ SEA31–10BUF
2016 · W9BUF @ SEA25–31SEA
2012 · W15SEA @ BUF50–17SEA
2008 · W1SEA @ BUF10–34BUF
2004 · W12BUF @ SEA38–9BUF
2001 · W10SEA @ BUF23–20SEA
2000 · W17BUF @ SEA42–23BUF
1999 · W7BUF @ SEA16–26SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–BUF
BUFQ1 15:00345Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 13:3535Punt0–7
BUFQ1 12:461185Touchdown0–14
SEAQ1 7:351070Turnover0–14
BUFQ1 1:391054Field goal0–17
SEAQ2 11:22960Touchdown7–17
BUFQ2 6:40575Touchdown7–24
SEAQ2 4:03848Field goal10–24
BUFQ2 1:07633Missed field goal10–24
SEAQ3 15:003-2Turnover10–24
BUFQ3 14:42629Field goal10–27
SEAQ3 11:551175Touchdown17–27
BUFQ3 6:363-2Punt17–27
SEAQ3 4:24529Field goal20–27
BUFQ3 1:561181Touchdown20–34
SEAQ4 11:273-15Turnover20–40
BUFQ4 9:4413Touchdown20–41
SEAQ4 9:38375Touchdown27–41
BUFQ4 8:5039Punt27–41
SEAQ4 7:083-1Turnover27–41
BUFQ4 6:3036Field goal27–44
SEAQ4 4:13775Touchdown34–44
BUFQ4 1:5135End of half34–44

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson28/4139022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeeJay Dallas7314.41
Travis Homer6162.70
Russell Wilson252.51
Alex Collins252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf791081
David Moore46711
Travis Homer33640
Jacob Hollister57600
Tyler Lockett47400
Will Dissly11260
Greg Olsen23130
DeeJay Dallas2280
Freddie Swain0200

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen31/3841530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zack Moss9182.01
Josh Allen7142.01
Isaiah McKenzie111.00
Devin Singletary210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs9121180
John Brown811990
Gabe Davis45701
Cole Beasley33390
Devin Singletary33330
Zack Moss22300
Isaiah McKenzie11251
Tyler Kroft1111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

6.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.49