1999 · Week 7 · Division
Final
Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 64°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
DAL -2
Total
44
Model margin
+1.9est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.098EPA / play-0.013
- 44.4%Success rate39.6%
- +0.143EPA / dropback+0.043
- +0.036EPA / rush-0.079
- 10.8%Explosive rate9.3%
- 36.2%Third-down rate34.8%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.78Points / drive1.25
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 23/35 | 218 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Connell | 2 | 7 | 52 | 1 |
| Mike Sellers | 2 | 2 | 39 | 1 |
| Michael Westbrook | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 5 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 20/32 | 244 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 24 | 80 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Raghib Ismail | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 8 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Troy Aikman | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 6 | 7 | 76 | 1 |
| Jason Tucker | 1 | 1 | 52 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 4 | 6 | 34 | 1 |
| Jeff Ogden | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Ernie Mills | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 2 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Tim Lester | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Mike Lucky | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Eric Bjornson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alvin Harper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.87