Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.010EPA / play-0.091
- 40.3%Success rate36.5%
- +0.116EPA / dropback-0.084
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.5%
- 41.4%Third-down rate28.4%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate40.6%
- 1.59Points / drive1.00
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.138EPA / play allowed-0.151
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BAL are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 18/40 | 155 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 8 | 50 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Reed | 7 | 14 | 76 | 0 |
| Kevin R. Williams | 4 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Kamil Loud | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 13/34 | 129 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errict Rhett | 24 | 73 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chuck Evans | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadry Ismail | 5 | 12 | 54 | 0 |
| Justin Armour | 3 | 10 | 35 | 1 |
| Chuck Evans | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Aaron Pierce | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.64