1999 · Week 8

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Doug Flutie

13·10

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tony Banks

PSINet Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BUF -3.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapRavens
  • -0.010EPA / play-0.091
  • 40.3%Success rate36.5%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback-0.084
  • -0.195EPA / rush-0.100
  • 7.9%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 41.4%Third-down rate28.4%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate40.6%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.00
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%
  • -0.138EPA / play allowed-0.151

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 8–7 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. BAL are 7-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8BAL @ BUF10–36BUF
2025 · W1BAL @ BUF40–41BUF
2024 · playoffsBAL @ BUF25–27BUF
2024 · W4BUF @ BAL10–35BAL
2022 · W4BUF @ BAL23–20BUF
2020 · playoffsBAL @ BUF3–17BUF
2019 · W14BAL @ BUF24–17BAL
2018 · W1BUF @ BAL3–47BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–BAL
BALQ1 15:00718Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:0336Punt0–0
BALQ1 10:281160Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 5:00416Punt0–7
BALQ1 2:2736Punt0–7
BUFQ1 1:0710Turnover0–7
BALQ1 1:0030Field goal0–10
BUFQ1 0:06956Turnover on downs0–10
BALQ2 10:013-6Punt0–10
BUFQ2 8:13611Punt0–10
BALQ2 6:2230Punt0–10
BUFQ2 5:5531Punt0–10
BALQ2 4:56742Missed field goal0–10
BUFQ2 2:03831Field goal3–10
BALQ2 0:3713End of half3–10
BUFQ3 15:00629Turnover3–10
BALQ3 11:07616Punt3–10
BUFQ3 8:0938Punt3–10
BALQ3 6:31711Punt3–10
BUFQ3 4:02613Turnover3–10
BALQ3 1:29510Punt3–10
BUFQ4 14:5337Punt3–10
BALQ4 13:3330Turnover3–10
BUFQ4 12:571222Field goal6–10
BALQ4 6:21527Turnover6–10
BUFQ4 3:25950Touchdown13–10
BALQ4 1:35713Turnover on downs13–10
BUFQ4 0:3900End of half13–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Flutie18/4015513

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Flutie8506.30
Antowain Smith650.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Reed714760
Kevin R. Williams48350
Peerless Price37260
Jay Riemersma1370
Kamil Loud0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Banks13/3412911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Errict Rhett24733.00
Chuck Evans263.00
Tony Banks133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Qadry Ismail512540
Justin Armour310351
Chuck Evans34260
Errict Rhett1180
Jermaine Lewis1460
Aaron Pierce0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.64