Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-2.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Ravensedge mapBills
- +0.209EPA / play+0.300
- 46.9%Success rate41.8%
- +0.316EPA / dropback+0.597
- +0.101EPA / rush-0.263
- 10.9%Explosive rate14.5%
- +4.80CPOE+8.14
- 37.5%Third-down rate33.3%
- 83.3%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 3.13Points / drive3.07
- 1.6%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BUF are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.16
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-2.38