2026 · Week 8

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Fagnanostarted

10·36

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

Highmark Stadium · outdoors · a_turf

Final · play by play

How it finished

Final

K.Allen kneels to BLT 42 for -1 yards.

Last play · Bills · Rush

Win probability · ESPN's model, not ours

0% RavensBills 100%

Scoring

  1. Q1 10:10Bills Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)0-7
  2. Q1 6:05Bills Tyler Bass 56 Yd Field Goal0-10
  3. Q1 3:18Ravens Derrick Henry 2 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)7-10
  4. Q2 9:50Bills Tyler Bass 22 Yd Field Goal7-13
  5. Q2 0:09Bills Tyler Bass 51 Yd Field Goal7-16
  6. Q3 11:28Ravens Tyler Loop 26 Yd Field Goal10-16
  7. Q3 8:59Bills James Cook III 5 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)10-23
  8. Q4 12:18Bills DJ Moore 11 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)10-29
  9. Q4 5:58Bills Dalton Kincaid 23 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)10-36

Every drive · newest first

Q4 2:33Bills 4 plays, 11 yards, 2:33 · from BUF 47End of Game
  1. Q4 0:00END GAME
  2. 2nd & 11K.Allen kneels to BLT 42 for -1 yards.
  3. 1st & 10K.Allen kneels to BLT 41 for -1 yards.
  4. 2nd & 4R.Davis up the middle to BLT 40 for 7 yards (K.Jackson; T.Buchanan).
  5. 2nd & 4Two-Minute Warning
  6. 1st & 10R.Davis right guard to BLT 47 for 6 yards (T.Tampa).
Q4 5:58Ravens 6 plays, 22 yards, 3:25 · from BAL 30Fumble
  1. 3rd & 1J.Fagnano FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 48, RECOVERED by BUF-D.Williams at BUF 47.
  2. 2nd & 5(Shotgun) J.Hill right tackle to BUF 48 for 4 yards (M.Hairston; L.Jackson).
  3. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Hill left end to BLT 48 for 5 yards (D.Igbinosun; G.Stone).
  4. 3rd & 5(Shotgun) J.Fagnano pass short middle to M.Andrews to BLT 43 for 8 yards (G.Stone).
  5. 2nd & 12(Shotgun) R.Ali up the middle to BLT 35 for 7 yards (G.Stone; D.Hamlin).
  6. 1st & 10(Shotgun) R.Ali left tackle to BLT 28 for -2 yards (D.Williams, G.Stone).
  7. Q4 5:58T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to BLT 4. L.Wester to BLT 30 for 26 yards (M.Hoecht).
Q4 9:31Bills 6 plays, 43 yards, 3:33 · from BAL 43Touchdown
  1. Q4 5:58PENALTY on BUF, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BLT 15 - No Play.
  2. 2nd & 3J.Allen pass deep left to D.Kincaid for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.
  3. 1st & 10R.Davis left guard to BLT 23 for 7 yards (C.Awuzie; M.Starks).
  4. 4th & 1J.Allen pass short right to D.Moore to BLT 30 for 4 yards (T.Tampa).
  5. 4th & 1Timeout #2 by BUF at 07:30.
  6. 3rd & 4(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to T.Johnson to BLT 34 for 3 yards (K.Hamilton).
  7. 2nd & 6R.Davis up the middle to BLT 37 for 2 yards (T.Jones; B.Washington).
  8. 1st & 10J.Cook left tackle to BLT 39 for 4 yards (T.Jones; J.Jenkins). ** Injury Update: BUF-J.Cook has returned to the game.
Q4 12:18Ravens 6 plays, 18 yards, 2:47 · from BAL 26Downs
  1. 4th & 3(Shotgun) J.Fagnano pass incomplete short right to R.Bateman (C.Benford) [E.Oliver].
  2. 4th & 3Timeout #1 by BUF at 09:35.
  3. 4th & 3Official Timeout at 09:35.
  4. 3rd & 3(Shotgun) J.Fagnano sacked at BLT 35 for -9 yards (D.Walker). FUMBLES (D.Walker), RECOVERED by BUF-G.Rousseau at BLT 31. G.Rousseau to BLT 29 for 2 yards (J.Simpson).The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) J.Fagnano pass incomplete short right to J.Hill (D.Walker).
  5. 2nd & 3(Shotgun) J.Fagnano pass short left to M.Andrews to BLT 44 for no gain (T.Couch).
  6. 1st & 10(Shotgun) D.Henry right guard to BLT 44 for 7 yards (L.Jackson).
  7. 2nd & 4(Shotgun) J.Fagnano pass short right to J.Hill to BLT 37 for 5 yards (D.Hamlin; M.Hoecht).
  8. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Hill right tackle pushed ob at BLT 32 for 6 yards (C.Benford; L.Jackson).
  9. Q4 12:18T.Bass kicks 59 yards from BUF 35 to BLT 6. R.Ali pushed ob at BLT 26 for 20 yards (K.Latu).
Q3 0:57Bills 8 plays, 65 yards, 3:39 · from BUF 35Touchdown
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 12:18.
  2. 3rd & 8(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to D.Moore for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Allen pass to J.Hawes is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
  3. 2nd & 8(Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to D.Kincaid.
  4. 1st & 10(Shotgun) T.Johnson left tackle pushed ob at BLT 11 for 2 yards (C.Awuzie).
  5. 1st & 20J.Allen pass deep left to D.Kincaid to BLT 13 for 40 yards (K.Wallace).
  6. 1st & 10R.Davis up the middle to BLT 31 for 12 yards (N.Wiggins). ** Injury Update: BUF-R.Davis has returned to the game. PENALTY on BUF-O.Torrence, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BLT 43 - No Play.
  7. 2nd & 4J.Cook up the middle to BLT 43 for 5 yards (K.Wallace). BUF-J.Cook was injured during the play.
  8. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to D.Knox to BLT 48 for 6 yards (T.Buchanan).
  9. Q3 0:00END QUARTER 3
  10. 2nd & 3J.Cook up the middle to BUF 46 for 4 yards (M.Starks; N.Madubuike).
  11. 1st & 10J.Allen pass short middle to J.Hawes to BUF 42 for 7 yards (T.Buchanan; R.Smith).
Q3 2:02Ravens 3 plays, 4 yards, 1:05 · from BAL 23Punt
  1. 4th & 6R.Eckley punts 55 yards to BUF 18, Center-N.Moore. G.Dortch to BUF 35 for 17 yards (M.Starks). BUF-R.Davis was injured during the play.
  2. 3rd & 6(Shotgun) J.Fagnano pass incomplete short middle to Z.Flowers (D.Hamlin).
  3. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) J.Fagnano scrambles left guard to BLT 27 for 4 yards (T.Sanders).
  4. 1st & 10J.Fagnano pass incomplete short right to M.Hibner.
Q3 7:54Bills 8 plays, 8 yards, 5:52 · from BUF 27Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 02:02.
  2. 4th & 31T.Doman punts 44 yards to BLT 21, Center-R.Ferguson. L.Wester to BLT 23 for 2 yards (M.Hoecht; R.Ferguson).
  3. 3rd & 22(Shotgun) J.Allen sacked at BUF 35 for -9 yards (sack split by M.Green and N.Madubuike).
  4. 2nd & 20(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to T.Johnson to BUF 44 for -2 yards (M.Starks, K.Hamilton).
  5. 1st & 20(Shotgun) J.Cook left end pushed ob at BUF 46 for no gain (T.Hendrickson).
  6. 1st & 10J.Cook up the middle to BLT 35 for 9 yards (M.Starks).PENALTY on BUF-J.Hawes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BLT 44 - No Play.
  7. 2nd & 4R.Davis left tackle to BLT 44 for 5 yards (J.Jenkins).
  8. 1st & 10J.Cook right tackle to BLT 49 for 6 yards (M.Starks).
  9. 3rd & 1J.Allen pass short right to J.Cook to BUF 45 for 9 yards (K.Hamilton) [T.Simpson].
  10. 2nd & 7(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short middle to K.Shakir to BUF 36 for 6 yards (T.Buchanan).
  11. 1st & 10R.Davis right guard to BUF 30 for 3 yards (T.Jones; T.Buchanan).
Q3 8:59Ravens 3 plays, 1 yard, 1:05 · from BAL 32Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 07:54.
  2. 4th & 9R.Eckley punts 40 yards to BUF 27, Center-N.Moore, out of bounds.
  3. 3rd & 9(Shotgun) J.Fagnano pass incomplete deep right to R.Bateman [E.Oliver].
  4. 2nd & 9J.Fagnano pass incomplete short right to Z.Flowers (G.Rousseau).
  5. 1st & 10D.Henry up the middle to BLT 33 for 1 yard (G.Rousseau).
  6. Q3 8:59T.Bass kicks 58 yards from BUF 35 to BLT 7. R.Ali MUFFS catch, and recovers at BLT 11. R.Ali to BLT 32 for 21 yards (K.Elarms-Orr).
Q3 11:28Bills 6 plays, 77 yards, 2:29 · from BUF 23Touchdown
  1. Q3 8:59Official Timeout at 08:59.
  2. 2nd & GoalJ.Cook right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.
  3. 1st & Goal(No Huddle) J.Allen pass incomplete short left to D.Moore (M.Humphrey).
  4. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to D.Moore to BLT 5 for 49 yards (M.Humphrey).
  5. 2nd & 8J.Allen pass short left to K.Shakir pushed ob at BUF 46 for 9 yards (R.Smith).
  6. 1st & 10J.Cook up the middle to BUF 37 for 2 yards (N.Madubuike).
  7. 1st & 10J.Allen pass short left to J.Cook pushed ob at BUF 35 for 12 yards (T.Simpson).
  8. Q3 11:28T.Loop kicks 64 yards from BLT 35 to BUF 1. G.Dortch to BUF 23 for 22 yards (A.Isaac).
Q3 15:00Ravens 8 plays, 61 yards, 3:32 · from BAL 31Field Goal
  1. Q3 11:28Official Timeout at 11:28.
  2. 4th & 4T.Loop 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.
  3. 3rd & 4(Shotgun) J.Fagnano pass incomplete short right to J.Hill [T.Bernard].
  4. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) J.Fagnano pass short right to M.Andrews to BUF 8 for 6 yards (T.Bernard).
  5. 2nd & 6D.Henry left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty.PENALTY on BLT-R.Stanley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 4.
  6. 2nd & 1PENALTY on BLT-Z.Flowers, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 5 - No Play.
  7. 2nd & 1Timeout #1 by BLT at 12:22.
  8. 1st & 10(Shotgun) D.Henry right end to BUF 5 for 9 yards (D.Hamlin, T.Bernard).
  9. 1st & 10D.Henry left end to BUF 28 for no gain (D.Williams).PENALTY on BUF-T.Bernard, Low Block, 14 yards, enforced at BUF 28 - No Play.Penalty on BUF-T.Sanders, Defensive Holding, declined.
  10. 3rd & 6(Shotgun) J.Fagnano pass deep right to R.Bateman to BUF 43 for 22 yards (D.Hamlin).PENALTY on BUF-E.Oliver, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 43.
  11. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) D.Henry up the middle to BLT 35 for 4 yards (T.Bernard; D.Williams).
  12. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Fagnano pass incomplete short middle to Z.Flowers.
  13. Q3 15:00T.Bass kicks 56 yards from BUF 35 to BLT 9. R.Ali to BLT 31 for 22 yards (J.Andreessen; G.Stone).
Q2 0:09Ravens 1 play, -1 yard, 0:09 · from BAL 19End of Half
  1. Q2 0:00END QUARTER 2
  2. 1st & 10J.Fagnano kneels to BLT 18 for -1 yards.
  3. Q2 0:09T.Bass kicks 60 yards from BUF 35 to BLT 5. L.Wester to BLT 35 for 30 yards (T.Parker; J.Solomon). ** Injury Update: BLT-R.Ali has returned to the game. PENALTY on BLT-K.Wallace, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BLT 29.
Q2 1:08Bills 4 plays, 0 yards, 0:59 · from BAL 33Field Goal
  1. 4th & 10T.Bass 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.
  2. 3rd & 24(Shotgun) J.Allen left tackle ran ob at BLT 33 for 14 yards (R.Smith).
  3. 3rd & 24Timeout #3 by BUF at 00:20.
  4. 2nd & 25(Shotgun) J.Allen scrambles left tackle to BLT 47 for 1 yard (R.Smith).
  5. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to D.Kincaid to BLT 29 for 4 yards (M.Green).PENALTY on BUF-J.Cook, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at BLT 33 - No Play.
  6. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to K.Shakir (R.Smith).
Q2 1:51Ravens 4 plays, 17 yards, 0:43 · from BAL 18Interception
  1. 1st & 5(Shotgun) J.Fagnano pass short left intended for Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by D.Igbinosun (G.Stone) at 50. D.Igbinosun to BLT 33 for 17 yards (R.Stanley; J.Lane).
  2. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Fagnano pass incomplete deep left to J.Lane (D.Igbinosun).PENALTY on BUF-T.Parker, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at BLT 30 - No Play.
  3. 3rd & 5(Shotgun) J.Fagnano pass short left to J.Hill pushed ob at BLT 30 for 7 yards (T.Couch) [T.Sanders].
  4. 3rd & 4Timeout #2 by BUF at 01:36.
  5. 2nd & 14(Shotgun) J.Fagnano pass short right to J.Hill to BLT 23 for 9 yards (D.Hamlin; T.Couch).
  6. 2nd & 14Timeout #1 by BUF at 01:46.
  7. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Fagnano sacked at BLT 14 for -4 yards (G.Rousseau).
Q2 4:22Bills 6 plays, 61 yards, 2:31 · from BUF 18Fumble
  1. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short middle to D.Moore to BLT 20 for 19 yards (M.Starks; R.Smith).The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short middle to D.Moore to BLT 21 for 18 yards (R.Smith; M.Starks). FUMBLES (R.Smith), RECOVERED by BLT-T.Tampa at BLT 18.
  2. 1st & 10Two-Minute Warning
  3. 4th & 1(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to T.Johnson pushed ob at BLT 39 for 18 yards (K.Jackson).
  4. 3rd & 1J.Allen pass incomplete short right to D.Moore (R.Smith).
  5. 2nd & 4J.Cook right guard to BUF 43 for 3 yards (N.Wiggins).
  6. 1st & 10J.Cook right guard to BUF 40 for 6 yards (M.Starks; N.Wiggins).
  7. 1st & 10J.Cook up the middle to BUF 34 for 16 yards (T.Tampa).
Q2 6:37Ravens 3 plays, 5 yards, 2:15 · from BAL 23Punt
  1. 4th & 5R.Eckley punts 62 yards to BUF 10, Center-N.Moore. G.Dortch to BUF 18 for 8 yards (R.Ali; A.Isaac). BLT-R.Ali was injured during the play.
  2. 3rd & 3(Shotgun) J.Fagnano sacked at BLT 28 for -2 yards (T.Parker).
  3. 2nd & 9J.Fagnano pass short right to D.Henry to BLT 30 for 6 yards (T.Bernard).
  4. 1st & 10C.Vinson reported in as eligible. D.Henry left end to BLT 24 for 1 yard (D.Walker; J.Solomon).
Q2 7:37Bills 3 plays, 2 yards, 1:00 · from BUF 24Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 06:37.
  2. 4th & 8T.Doman punts 51 yards to BLT 23, Center-R.Ferguson, fair catch by L.Wester.
  3. 3rd & 8(Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to K.Coleman [N.Madubuike].
  4. 2nd & 8(Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short left to D.Moore.
  5. 1st & 10J.Cook left tackle to BUF 26 for 2 yards (T.Simpson).
Q2 9:50Ravens 6 plays, 19 yards, 2:13 · from BUF 35Missed FG
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 07:37.
  2. 4th & GoalT.Loop 34 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.
  3. 3rd & Goal(Shotgun) J.Fagnano pass incomplete short right to M.Andrews [G.Rousseau].
  4. 2nd & Goal(Shotgun) J.Fagnano pass incomplete short left to J.Hill.
  5. 1st & Goal(Shotgun) J.Fagnano sacked at BUF 16 for -9 yards (L.Jackson).
  6. 1st & 10(No Huddle) J.Fagnano pass short left to J.Lane pushed ob at BUF 7 for 13 yards (M.Hairston).
  7. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Fagnano pass short left to J.Cuevas to BUF 20 for 15 yards (C.Bishop) [G.Rousseau].
  8. Q2 9:50T.Bass kicks 59 yards from BUF 35 to BLT 6. R.Ali pushed ob at BUF 35 for 59 yards (T.Bass).
Q2 14:01Bills 9 plays, 16 yards, 4:11 · from BAL 20Field Goal
  1. Q2 9:50Official Timeout at 09:50.
  2. 4th & GoalT.Bass 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.
  3. 3rd & GoalJ.Allen left end to BLT 4 for -3 yards (K.Hamilton).
  4. 2nd & GoalA.Corbett reported in as eligible. J.Cook up the middle to BLT 1 for 2 yards (K.Hamilton; R.Smith).
  5. 1st & GoalT.Johnson up the middle to BLT 3 for no gain (M.Green; R.Smith).
  6. 1st & GoalJ.Cook right guard to BLT 7 for 3 yards (R.Smith).PENALTY on BLT-N.Madubuike, Defensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at BLT 7.
  7. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 12:27.
  8. 4th & 1(No Huddle) J.Cook left end to BLT 11 for no gain (R.Smith).The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(No Huddle) J.Cook left tackle to BLT 10 for 1 yard (R.Smith).
  9. 3rd & 3(Shotgun) J.Cook right guard to BLT 11 for 2 yards (K.Wallace).
  10. 2nd & 5J.Cook up the middle to BLT 13 for 2 yards (T.Hendrickson; N.Madubuike).
  11. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Allen right tackle to BLT 15 for 5 yards (K.Wallace).
Q2 14:52Ravens 3 plays, -6 yards, 0:51 · from BAL 38Fumble
  1. 3rd & 8(Shotgun) T.Huntley sacked at BLT 33 for -7 yards (C.Bishop). FUMBLES (C.Bishop) [C.Bishop], touched at BLT 32, RECOVERED by BUF-K.Elarms-Orr at BLT 20.
  2. 2nd & 8T.Huntley pass incomplete short right to J.Cuevas [B.Chubb].
  3. 1st & 10D.Henry left tackle to BLT 40 for 2 yards (D.Walker; T.Sanders).
Q1 3:18Bills 9 plays, 28 yards, 3:26 · from BUF 35Downs
  1. 4th & 4(Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to K.Coleman.
  2. Q1 0:00END QUARTER 1
  3. 3rd & 8(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to K.Coleman to BLT 37 for 4 yards (M.Humphrey; M.Green).
  4. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) J.Cook right guard to BLT 41 for 2 yards (T.Hendrickson; T.Buchanan).
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short left to D.Knox.
  6. 3rd & 7(Shotgun) J.Allen scrambles up the middle to BLT 43 for 12 yards (K.Wallace).
  7. 2nd & 10J.Cook up the middle to BUF 45 for 3 yards (T.Simpson; M.Green).
  8. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to J.Palmer. BUF-J.Palmer was injured during the play.
  9. 3rd & 8(Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to D.Knox (K.Hamilton).PENALTY on BLT-M.Humphrey, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 37 - No Play.
  10. 2nd & 8(Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short left to D.Kincaid (C.Awuzie).
  11. 1st & 10J.Cook up the middle to BUF 37 for 2 yards (K.Wallace; T.Jones).
  12. Q1 3:18T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BLT 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BUF 35.
Q1 4:10Ravens 2 plays, 17 yards, 0:52 · from BUF 17Touchdown
  1. Q1 3:18Official Timeout at 03:18.
  2. 1st & GoalD.Henry up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.
  3. 1st & GoalPENALTY on BUF-D.Walker, Encroachment, 3 yards, enforced at BUF 5 - No Play.
  4. 1st & 10D.Henry right end pushed ob at BUF 5 for 12 yards (T.Couch).
Q1 4:17Bills 1 play, 0 yards, 0:07 · from BUF 16Interception
  1. 1st & 10J.Allen pass short middle intended for J.Hawes INTERCEPTED by B.Washington at BUF 17. B.Washington to BUF 17 for no gain.
Q1 6:05Ravens 3 plays, 5 yards, 1:48 · from BAL 30Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 04:17.
  2. 4th & 5R.Eckley punts 49 yards to BUF 16, Center-N.Moore, fair catch by G.Dortch.
  3. 3rd & 5(Shotgun) T.Huntley pass incomplete short middle to J.Hill [E.Oliver].
  4. 3rd & 1(Shotgun) PENALTY on BLT-R.Stanley, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at BLT 39 - No Play.
  5. 2nd & 2D.Henry right guard to BLT 39 for 1 yard (D.Carter; D.Williams).
  6. 1st & 10D.Henry left guard to BLT 38 for 8 yards (T.Bernard; G.Rousseau).
  7. Q1 6:05T.Bass kicks 60 yards from BUF 35 to BLT 5. R.Ali to BLT 30 for 25 yards (S.Franklin; K.Latu).
Q1 8:31Bills 5 plays, 19 yards, 2:26 · from BUF 43Field Goal
  1. Q1 6:05Official Timeout at 06:05.
  2. 4th & 7T.Bass 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.
  3. 4th & 2(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to D.Moore to BLT 25 for 8 yards (K.Martin).PENALTY on BUF, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at BLT 33 - No Play.
  4. 3rd & 4(Shotgun) T.Johnson up the middle to BLT 33 for 2 yards (R.Smith).
  5. 2nd & 4J.Allen pass incomplete short left [T.Hendrickson].
  6. 1st & 10J.Cook up the middle to BLT 35 for 6 yards (K.Hamilton).
  7. 1st & 10J.Allen pass short middle to D.Kincaid to BLT 41 for 16 yards (T.Simpson; M.Green).
Q1 10:10Ravens 3 plays, 0 yards, 1:39 · from BAL 29Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 08:31.
  2. 4th & 10R.Eckley punts 43 yards to BUF 28, Center-N.Moore. G.Dortch to BUF 43 for 15 yards (R.Ali).
  3. 3rd & 9(Shotgun) T.Huntley pass short right to J.Hill to BLT 29 for -1 yards (G.Stone).
  4. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) T.Huntley pass short right to D.Henry to BLT 30 for 1 yard (T.Bernard; T.Couch).
  5. 1st & 10L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to Z.Flowers (G.Rousseau). BLT-L.Jackson was injured during the play.
  6. Q1 10:10T.Bass kicks 57 yards from BUF 35 to BLT 8. L.Wester to BLT 29 for 21 yards (J.Solomon; K.Elarms-Orr).
Q1 15:00Bills 10 plays, 60 yards, 4:50 · from BUF 40Touchdown
  1. Q1 10:10Official Timeout at 10:10.
  2. 4th & GoalJ.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.
  3. 3rd & GoalJ.Allen left guard to BLT 1 for no gain (Z.Young; M.Starks).
  4. 2nd & GoalJ.Allen pass short right to K.Shakir for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED.J.Allen pass short right to K.Shakir pushed ob at BLT 1 for 5 yards (K.Martin).
  5. 1st & GoalD.Moore left end to BLT 6 for 4 yards (M.Starks).
  6. 1st & Goal(No Huddle) PENALTY on BUF-D.Dawkins, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BLT 5 - No Play.
  7. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short middle to K.Shakir to BLT 5 for 18 yards (T.Hendrickson).
  8. 1st & 10(Shotgun) T.Johnson right tackle to BLT 23 for no gain (M.Green).
  9. 1st & 10J.Allen pass short right to K.Shakir to BLT 23 for 26 yards (M.Humphrey; R.Smith).
  10. 3rd & 6(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to D.Kincaid to BLT 49 for 7 yards (K.Hamilton).
  11. 2nd & 10J.Cook left tackle to BUF 44 for 4 yards (M.Starks).
  12. 1st & 10J.Allen pass incomplete short right to J.Cook.
  13. Q1 15:00T.Loop kicks 62 yards from BLT 35 to BUF 3, out of bounds.PENALTY on BLT-T.Loop, Kickoff Out of Bounds, placed at BUF 40.

Plays via ESPN. The full play-by-play, with EPA and our win probability, lands with the overnight data refresh.

Closing spread

BUF -3

Total

54.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bills

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBills
  • +0.071EPA / play+0.210
  • 46.2%Success rate49.2%
  • +0.186EPA / dropback+0.338
  • -0.080EPA / rush+0.031
  • 9.2%Explosive rate13.6%
  • +4.76CPOE+4.89
  • 41.4%Third-down rate48.3%
  • 66.7%Red-zone TD rate70.0%
  • 2.06Points / drive3.19
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BUF are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1BAL @ BUF40–41BUF
2024 · playoffsBAL @ BUF25–27BUF
2024 · W4BUF @ BAL10–35BAL
2022 · W4BUF @ BAL23–20BUF
2020 · playoffsBAL @ BUF3–17BUF
2019 · W14BAL @ BUF24–17BAL
2018 · W1BUF @ BAL3–47BAL
2016 · W1BUF @ BAL7–13BAL

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.6%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.93
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+0.57