1999 · Week 8

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Shane Matthews

22·48

Commanders

Washington

QB Brad Johnson

Jack Kent Cooke Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

WAS -8.5

Total

44

Model margin

+5.8est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.102EPA / play+0.098
  • 38.6%Success rate44.4%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback+0.143
  • -0.228EPA / rush+0.036
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.8%
  • 37.0%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 44.0%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 1.03Points / drive1.78
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 44.4 points. WAS are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6CHI @ WAS25–24CHI
2024 · W8CHI @ WAS15–18WAS
2023 · W5CHI @ WAS40–20CHI
2022 · W6WAS @ CHI12–7WAS
2019 · W3CHI @ WAS31–15CHI
2016 · W16WAS @ CHI41–21WAS
2015 · W14WAS @ CHI24–21WAS
2013 · W7CHI @ WAS41–45WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–WAS
WASQ1 15:00276Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 14:351172Opp touchdown0–14
WASQ1 9:1700Opp touchdown0–14
CHIQ1 9:171034Turnover on downs0–14
WASQ1 4:0438Punt0–14
CHIQ1 2:353-15Punt0–14
WASQ1 0:56651Field goal0–17
CHIQ2 13:32711Punt0–17
WASQ2 10:48994Touchdown0–24
CHIQ2 6:253-1Punt0–24
WASQ2 4:0234Punt0–24
CHIQ2 3:04627Punt0–24
WASQ2 1:36836Touchdown0–31
CHIQ2 0:35528Turnover0–31
CHIQ3 15:0021Turnover0–31
WASQ3 14:0927Touchdown0–38
CHIQ3 13:3038Punt0–38
WASQ3 12:011080Touchdown0–45
CHIQ3 6:371078Touchdown7–45
WASQ3 2:5800Touchdown7–45
CHIQ3 2:58359Touchdown14–45
CHIQ3 1:3900Touchdown14–45
WASQ3 1:3932Field goal14–48
CHIQ4 14:55726Turnover on downs14–48
WASQ4 11:3231Punt14–48
CHIQ4 10:30743Turnover14–48
WASQ4 7:33613Missed field goal14–48
CHIQ4 4:3610Turnover14–48
WASQ4 4:2635Turnover14–48
CHIQ4 4:001574Touchdown22–48
WASQ4 1:1200End of half22–48

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cade McNown23/4027233
Shane Matthews13/2311301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Enis19562.90
Cade McNown2105.00
Edgar Bennett263.00
Bobby Engram122.00
Shane Matthews100.00
Glyn Milburn100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcus Robinson9141612
Bobby Engram712650
Glyn Milburn67590
Curtis Enis68390
Macey Brooks25230
D'Wayne Bates11110
Edgar Bennett23100
Ryan Wetnight2591
John Allred1280

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson15/2520420
Rodney Peete2/8801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis1214311.92
Skip Hicks7223.10
Brad Johnson111.01
Brian Mitchell2-1-0.50
Rodney Peete2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Westbrook57851
Albert Connell24460
Stephen Davis22260
Skip Hicks2280
Irving Fryar1660
Brian Mitchell1150
Stephen Alexander1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.5%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.85