1999 · Week 8
Final
Jack Kent Cooke Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
WAS -8.5
Total
44
Model margin
+5.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.102EPA / play+0.098
- 38.6%Success rate44.4%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.228EPA / rush+0.036
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.8%
- 37.0%Third-down rate36.2%
- 44.0%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.03Points / drive1.78
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. WAS are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade McNown | 23/40 | 272 | 3 | 3 |
| Shane Matthews | 13/23 | 113 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Enis | 19 | 56 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Edgar Bennett | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 9 | 14 | 161 | 2 |
| Bobby Engram | 7 | 12 | 65 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 6 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 6 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Edgar Bennett | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| John Allred | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 15/25 | 204 | 2 | 0 |
| Rodney Peete | 2/8 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 12 | 143 | 11.9 | 2 |
| Skip Hicks | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Brian Mitchell | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Rodney Peete | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Westbrook | 5 | 7 | 85 | 1 |
| Albert Connell | 2 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.85