Closing spread
JAX -12.5
Total
38
Model margin
-3.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.048EPA / play-0.068
- 42.5%Success rate39.4%
- +0.145EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.132
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.1%
- 40.4%Third-down rate39.2%
- 46.2%Red-zone TD rate43.1%
- 1.75Points / drive1.24
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.127EPA / play allowed+0.041
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 7-8-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 11/19 | 145 | 2 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 6/9 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 15 | 128 | 8.5 | 1 |
| James Stewart | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Tavian Banks | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 8 | 11 | 89 | 1 |
| Tavian Banks | 2 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 1 | 6 | 23 | 1 |
| Reggie Barlow | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 13/23 | 155 | 1 | 0 |
| Akili Smith | 6/12 | 67 | 0 | 2 |
| Carl Pickens | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akili Smith | 3 | 40 | 13.3 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 14 | 32 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Michael Basnight | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Basnight | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Carl Pickens | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 2 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Craig Yeast | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 2 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| Akili Smith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.4%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.47
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-3.62