1999 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

41·10

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Akili Smith

Cinergy Field · outdoors · astroturf · 69°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

JAX -12.5

Total

38

Model margin

-3.6est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBengals
  • +0.048EPA / play-0.068
  • 42.5%Success rate39.4%
  • +0.145EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.132
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.1%
  • 40.4%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 46.2%Red-zone TD rate43.1%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.24
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.127EPA / play allowed+0.041

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 42.2 points. CIN are 7-9-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4JAX @ CIN22–17JAX
2025 · W2JAX @ CIN27–31CIN
2023 · W13CIN @ JAX34–31CIN
2021 · W4JAX @ CIN21–24CIN
2020 · W4JAX @ CIN25–33CIN
2019 · W7JAX @ CIN27–17JAX
2017 · W9CIN @ JAX7–23JAX
2014 · W9JAX @ CIN23–33CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CIN
JAXQ1 15:00864Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 10:383-3Punt7–0
JAXQ1 9:04858Touchdown14–0
CINQ1 6:30748Turnover14–0
JAXQ1 2:25612Field goal17–0
CINQ2 14:46842Turnover17–0
JAXQ2 10:2010108Touchdown24–0
CINQ2 5:5449Turnover on downs24–0
JAXQ2 4:06636Field goal27–0
CINQ2 1:46520Punt27–0
JAXQ2 0:131-1End of half27–0
CINQ3 15:001268Field goal27–3
JAXQ3 7:20721Punt27–3
CINQ3 2:2210Turnover27–3
JAXQ3 2:0724Touchdown34–3
CINQ3 1:41521Punt34–3
JAXQ4 14:36522Punt34–3
CINQ4 12:34416Punt34–3
JAXQ4 10:30853Touchdown41–3
CINQ4 6:37715Turnover on downs41–3
JAXQ4 4:2940Turnover on downs41–3
CINQ4 3:08764Touchdown41–10

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell11/1914520
Jay Fiedler6/96900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor151288.51
James Stewart10323.22
Tavian Banks6122.00
Mark Brunell2115.50
Jay Fiedler100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith811891
Tavian Banks24500
Kyle Brady23290
Keenan McCardell16231
Reggie Barlow11110
Damon Jones11110
Fred Taylor1130
James Stewart11-20

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Blake13/2315510
Akili Smith6/126702
Carl Pickens1/1600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Akili Smith34013.30
Corey Dillon14322.30
Michael Basnight4112.80
Jeff Blake2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Basnight34470
Carl Pickens24310
Corey Dillon23250
Marco Battaglia11230
Willie Jackson23221
Craig Yeast34200
Tony McGee25180
Nicolas Luchey12160
Darnay Scott27110
Akili Smith1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.2%7.5%6.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.4%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.47
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-3.62