1999 · Week 8 · Division

Final / OT

Giants

New York

QB Kent Graham

23·17

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Doug Pederson

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 63°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NYG -2.5

Total

33.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapEagles
  • -0.084EPA / play-0.192
  • 38.6%Success rate33.4%
  • -0.016EPA / dropback-0.199
  • -0.207EPA / rush-0.181
  • 6.4%Explosive rate6.4%
  • 35.7%Third-down rate31.2%
  • 50.7%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
  • 1.14Points / drive0.90
  • 2.8%Turnover rate3.6%
  • -0.039EPA / play allowed-0.098

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00616Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:1840Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:12940Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 6:4038Punt0–3
PHIQ1 4:3231Punt0–3
NYGQ1 2:54745Field goal3–3
PHIQ1 0:00311Turnover3–3
NYGQ2 13:26724Missed field goal3–3
PHIQ2 10:47975Touchdown3–10
NYGQ2 5:30314Punt3–10
PHIQ2 2:53286Touchdown3–17
NYGQ2 2:321159End of half3–17
NYGQ3 15:00723Punt3–17
PHIQ3 10:10631Punt3–17
NYGQ3 7:061788Touchdown10–17
PHIQ4 13:0739Punt10–17
NYGQ4 10:5548Punt10–17
PHIQ4 8:36430Missed field goal10–17
NYGQ4 6:29411Punt10–17
PHIQ4 4:5831Punt10–17
NYGQ4 3:59310Punt10–17
PHIQ4 3:0832Turnover10–17
NYGQ4 2:4325Touchdown17–17
PHIQ4 2:00731Missed field goal17–17
NYGQ4 0:0310End of half17–17
NYGOT34Punt17–17
PHIOT627Opp touchdown23–17

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kent Graham26/4124010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kent Graham5418.20
LeShon Johnson14312.21
Tiki Barber144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tiki Barber45430
Pete Mitchell69411
LeShon Johnson45350
Ike Hilliard35330
Howard Cross33310
Amani Toomer15250
Joe Jurevicius13120
Kent Graham11-10

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Pederson18/2825612
Donovan McNabb1/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley26973.71
Doug Pederson263.00
James Bostic122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrance Small481191
Charles Johnson810840
Duce Staley33320
Luther Broughton2280
Dietrich Jells1280
Ed Smith0100
Jed Weaver0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.3%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.39
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.44