Closing spread
NYG -2.5
Total
33.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play-0.192
- 38.6%Success rate33.4%
- -0.016EPA / dropback-0.199
- -0.207EPA / rush-0.181
- 6.4%Explosive rate6.4%
- 35.7%Third-down rate31.2%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
- 1.14Points / drive0.90
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.6%
- -0.039EPA / play allowed-0.098
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Graham | 26/41 | 240 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Graham | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 |
| LeShon Johnson | 14 | 31 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 6 | 9 | 41 | 1 |
| LeShon Johnson | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Howard Cross | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 1 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Kent Graham | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Pederson | 18/28 | 256 | 1 | 2 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 26 | 97 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Doug Pederson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| James Bostic | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrance Small | 4 | 8 | 119 | 1 |
| Charles Johnson | 8 | 10 | 84 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Dietrich Jells | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ed Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.44