Closing spread
CAR -5
Total
36
Model margin
+3.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.192EPA / play+0.026
- 33.4%Success rate42.4%
- -0.199EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.151
- 6.4%Explosive rate9.7%
- 31.2%Third-down rate38.5%
- 46.7%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 0.90Points / drive1.98
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.098EPA / play allowed+0.053
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 8–5 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. CAR are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 8/20 | 68 | 0 | 1 |
| Doug Pederson | 3/9 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 17 | 140 | 8.2 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| James Bostic | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrance Small | 4 | 10 | 39 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Dietrich Jells | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 21/34 | 281 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Lane | 20 | 74 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Michael Bates | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 7 | 4 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 8 | 11 | 88 | 2 |
| Wesley Walls | 5 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Eric Metcalf | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Patrick Jeffers | 2 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Fred Lane | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.92