1999 · Week 9

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Doug Pederson

7·33

Panthers

Carolina

QB Steve Beuerlein

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

CAR -5

Total

36

Model margin

+3.9est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapPanthers
  • -0.192EPA / play+0.026
  • 33.4%Success rate42.4%
  • -0.199EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.151
  • 6.4%Explosive rate9.7%
  • 31.2%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 46.7%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 0.90Points / drive1.98
  • 3.6%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.098EPA / play allowed+0.053

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. CAR are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6CAR @ PHI25–14CAR
2024 · W14CAR @ PHI16–22PHI
2021 · W5PHI @ CAR21–18PHI
2018 · W7CAR @ PHI21–17CAR
2017 · W6PHI @ CAR28–23PHI
2015 · W7PHI @ CAR16–27CAR
2014 · W10CAR @ PHI21–45PHI
2012 · W12CAR @ PHI30–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–CAR
CARQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:2136Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 12:26638Punt0–3
CARQ1 10:26840Punt0–3
PHIQ1 5:09729Punt0–3
CARQ1 1:52785Touchdown0–10
PHIQ2 13:00734Turnover0–10
CARQ2 9:101360Touchdown0–17
PHIQ2 3:041-3Turnover0–17
CARQ2 2:503-4Field goal0–20
PHIQ2 2:0000Punt0–20
PHIQ2 2:0049Punt0–20
CARQ2 1:07540Field goal0–23
PHIQ2 0:0600End of half0–23
PHIQ3 15:0038Punt0–23
CARQ3 13:161249Field goal0–26
PHIQ3 7:351137Turnover0–26
CARQ3 2:35765Touchdown0–33
PHIQ4 14:32618Punt0–33
CARQ4 11:40613Punt0–33
CARQ4 8:1849Turnover on downs0–33
PHIQ4 6:061680Touchdown7–33
CARQ4 2:37214End of half7–33

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb8/206801
Doug Pederson3/92800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley171408.21
Donovan McNabb3217.00
James Bostic284.00
Doug Pederson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrance Small410390
Charles Johnson36320
Duce Staley23110
Jed Weaver1280
Luther Broughton1460
Dietrich Jells0200

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve Beuerlein21/3428130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Lane20743.70
Michael Bates2147.00
Steve Beuerlein166.00
Anthony Johnson740.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Muhsin Muhammad811882
Wesley Walls59700
Eric Metcalf22480
Patrick Jeffers24301
Fred Lane22200
Anthony Johnson12110
Donald Hayes0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.92