Closing spread
STL -4
Total
45
Model margin
+1.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:47 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 10:04 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:45 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 2–0 |
| DET | Q1 7:02 | 1 | -1 | Safety | 2–0 |
| LA | Q1 6:58 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 2–0 |
| DET | Q1 3:30 | 11 | 78 | Touchdown | 2–7 |
| LA | Q2 14:19 | 7 | 76 | Touchdown | 9–7 |
| DET | Q2 11:32 | 8 | 54 | Field goal | 9–10 |
| LA | Q2 6:51 | 4 | -7 | Punt | 9–10 |
| DET | Q2 5:32 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 9–10 |
| LA | Q2 4:00 | 10 | 47 | Field goal | 12–10 |
| DET | Q2 0:41 | 4 | 10 | End of half | 12–10 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 12–10 |
| DET | Q3 13:56 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 12–10 |
| LA | Q3 12:34 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 12–10 |
| DET | Q3 11:19 | 4 | 12 | Touchdown | 12–18 |
| LA | Q3 9:20 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 12–18 |
| DET | Q3 7:05 | 4 | 32 | Field goal | 12–21 |
| LA | Q3 4:49 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 12–21 |
| DET | Q3 1:57 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 12–21 |
| LA | Q3 0:14 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 12–21 |
| DET | Q4 14:51 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 12–21 |
| LA | Q4 12:04 | 4 | 85 | Touchdown | 19–21 |
| DET | Q4 10:06 | 6 | 35 | Field goal | 19–24 |
| LA | Q4 6:10 | 9 | 54 | Touchdown | 27–24 |
| DET | Q4 2:42 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 27–31 |
| LA | Q4 0:28 | 2 | 11 | Turnover | 27–31 |
| DET | Q4 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 12/16 | 209 | 2 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 10/20 | 148 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sedrick Irvin | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Greg Hill | 11 | 3 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germane Crowell | 8 | 13 | 163 | 1 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 4 | 4 | 65 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 4 | 9 | 59 | 1 |
| Brian Stablein | 2 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Pete Chryplewicz | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Greg Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.15
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.