Closing spread
STL -4
Total
45
Model margin
+1.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 12/16 | 209 | 2 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 10/20 | 148 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sedrick Irvin | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Greg Hill | 11 | 3 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germane Crowell | 8 | 13 | 163 | 1 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 4 | 4 | 65 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 4 | 9 | 59 | 1 |
| Brian Stablein | 2 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Pete Chryplewicz | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Greg Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.15
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.