Closing spread
JAX -13
Total
37
Model margin
+3.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play+0.048
- 36.5%Success rate42.5%
- -0.084EPA / dropback+0.145
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- 28.4%Third-down rate40.4%
- 40.6%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
- 1.00Points / drive1.75
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.151EPA / play allowed-0.127
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. JAX are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoney Case | 7/12 | 103 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 10/21 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errict Rhett | 19 | 50 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Stoney Case | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Armour | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Chuck Evans | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 3 | 9 | 13 | 0 |
| Billy Davis | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| A.J. Ofodile | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Aaron Pierce | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Greg DeLong | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 20/29 | 118 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 18 | 25 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 7 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Reggie Barlow | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.35