1999 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tony Banks

3·6

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

JAX -13

Total

37

Model margin

+3.4est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

1.7%est.

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapJaguars
  • -0.091EPA / play+0.048
  • 36.5%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.084EPA / dropback+0.145
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.086
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 28.4%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 40.6%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
  • 1.00Points / drive1.75
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.5%
  • -0.151EPA / play allowed-0.127

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–7 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. JAX are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15BAL @ JAX23–7BAL
2022 · W12BAL @ JAX27–28JAX
2020 · W15JAX @ BAL14–40BAL
2017 · W3BAL @ JAX7–44JAX
2016 · W3BAL @ JAX19–17BAL
2015 · W10JAX @ BAL22–20JAX
2014 · W15JAX @ BAL12–20BAL
2011 · W7BAL @ JAX7–12JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00934Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:58734Punt0–0
JAXQ1 6:5451Punt0–0
BALQ1 4:1330Punt0–0
JAXQ1 2:283-8Punt0–0
BALQ1 0:0637Punt0–0
JAXQ2 13:5433Punt0–0
BALQ2 12:2136Punt0–0
JAXQ2 11:1233Field goal0–3
BALQ2 10:16646Turnover0–3
JAXQ2 7:2136Punt0–3
BALQ2 6:03532Punt0–3
JAXQ2 3:3132Punt0–3
BALQ2 1:53944Field goal3–3
JAXQ2 0:1000End of half3–3
BALQ3 15:00410Punt3–3
JAXQ3 12:1539Punt3–3
BALQ3 10:1734Punt3–3
JAXQ3 8:411548Field goal3–6
BALQ3 1:5244Punt3–6
JAXQ3 0:0032Punt3–6
BALQ4 13:0534Punt3–6
JAXQ4 11:45620Missed field goal3–6
BALQ4 7:561039Turnover on downs3–6
JAXQ4 3:05612Punt3–6
BALQ4 0:17312End of half3–6

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Stoney Case7/1210300
Tony Banks10/217300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Errict Rhett19502.60
Tony Banks3227.30
Stoney Case2168.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Armour22440
Chuck Evans23330
Qadry Ismail35330
Errict Rhett23200
Jermaine Lewis39130
Billy Davis15110
A.J. Ofodile1190
Aaron Pierce1270
Greg DeLong1140
Obafemi Ayanbadejo1120

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell20/2911800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart18251.40
Fred Taylor7121.70
Mark Brunell11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith79520
Keenan McCardell46180
Kyle Brady23170
Damon Jones2490
Reggie Barlow1270
James Stewart2360
Fred Taylor1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.68%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.35