Closing spread
STL -10
Total
48
Model margin
+1.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. STL are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:38 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q1 7:02 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 4:31 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q1 2:50 | 5 | 34 | Opp touchdown | 7–14 |
| LA | Q1 0:15 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–14 |
| CAR | Q1 0:15 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LA | Q2 13:47 | 14 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| CAR | Q2 5:31 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–21 |
| LA | Q2 3:55 | 2 | 22 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| CAR | Q2 3:17 | 6 | 47 | Field goal | 10–21 |
| LA | Q2 0:44 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| CAR | Q2 0:30 | 2 | 16 | End of half | 10–21 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 10–21 |
| CAR | Q3 12:15 | 2 | 10 | Opp touchdown | 10–28 |
| LA | Q3 11:25 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 10–28 |
| CAR | Q3 11:25 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 10–28 |
| LA | Q3 9:04 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–28 |
| CAR | Q3 7:29 | 17 | 84 | Turnover on downs | 10–28 |
| LA | Q4 13:44 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 10–28 |
| CAR | Q4 11:25 | 8 | 50 | Turnover | 10–28 |
| LA | Q4 7:53 | 5 | 41 | Punt | 10–28 |
| CAR | Q4 6:00 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 10–28 |
| LA | Q4 4:29 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 10–35 |
| CAR | Q4 1:11 | 2 | 4 | End of half | 10–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 24/37 | 286 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Lane | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 9 | 11 | 125 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 5 | 6 | 54 | 1 |
| Patrick Jeffers | 3 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Fred Lane | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Kinchen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.67
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.