Closing spread
STL -10
Total
48
Model margin
+1.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. STL are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 24/37 | 286 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Lane | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 9 | 11 | 125 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 5 | 6 | 54 | 1 |
| Patrick Jeffers | 3 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Fred Lane | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Kinchen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.67
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.