Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
37
Model margin
+5.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play-0.010
- 37.3%Success rate40.3%
- -0.071EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.186EPA / rush-0.195
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.9%
- 34.2%Third-down rate41.4%
- 42.4%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.17Points / drive1.59
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.102EPA / play allowed-0.138
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 9/25 | 65 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Johnson | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Cecil Collins | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Martin | 2 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| O.J. McDuffie | 2 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Jacquet | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 10/20 | 157 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 29 | 126 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Lennox Gordon | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Doug Flutie | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 1 | 4 | 53 | 1 |
| Jay Riemersma | 2 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Kevin R. Williams | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Bobby Collins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.43