1999 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Brad Johnson

28·35

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 60°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

WAS -6

Total

42

Model margin

-1.3est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapEagles
  • +0.098EPA / play-0.192
  • 44.4%Success rate33.4%
  • +0.143EPA / dropback-0.199
  • +0.036EPA / rush-0.181
  • 10.8%Explosive rate6.4%
  • 36.2%Third-down rate31.2%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
  • 1.78Points / drive0.90
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.6%
  • -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.098

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. PHI are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PHI
WASQ1 15:00389Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 13:281052Field goal7–3
WASQ1 9:11780Touchdown14–9
PHIQ1 5:4400Touchdown14–10
WASQ1 5:29421Turnover14–10
PHIQ1 3:1335Punt14–10
WASQ1 1:5034Punt14–10
WASQ1 0:41629Touchdown21–10
PHIQ2 13:0036Punt21–10
WASQ2 11:16713Missed field goal21–10
PHIQ2 7:491036Turnover on downs21–10
WASQ2 1:5526Turnover21–10
PHIQ2 1:1530Field goal21–13
WASQ2 0:2300End of half21–13
PHIQ3 15:005-5Missed field goal21–13
WASQ3 11:36411Turnover21–13
PHIQ3 9:5635Field goal21–16
WASQ3 8:42426Turnover21–16
PHIQ3 6:55515Punt21–16
WASQ3 4:3630Punt21–16
PHIQ3 3:11660Touchdown21–24
WASQ3 0:0810Turnover21–24
PHIQ3 0:00617Field goal21–27
WASQ4 11:33291Touchdown28–27
PHIQ4 11:3333Punt28–27
WASQ4 9:06726Turnover28–27
PHIQ4 5:49845Touchdown28–35
PHIQ4 3:3800Touchdown28–35
WASQ4 3:381129Turnover on downs28–35
PHIQ4 1:4200End of half28–35

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson18/3331323

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis251224.92
Michael Westbrook199.00
Brad Johnson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Westbrook481521
Albert Connell612881
Mike Sellers12320
Stephen Alexander33230
Brian Mitchell2390
Stephen Davis1180
Irving Fryar0200

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb8/216000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley281224.41
Donovan McNabb9495.40
Eric Bieniemy5275.41

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrance Small45300
Duce Staley12110
Jed Weaver12110
Luther Broughton1220
Charles Johnson0400
Ed Smith0100
Alex Van Dyke0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.6%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.68
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.30