1999 · Week 10 · Division
Final
Veterans Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 60°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -6
Total
42
Model margin
-1.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.098EPA / play-0.192
- 44.4%Success rate33.4%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.199
- +0.036EPA / rush-0.181
- 10.8%Explosive rate6.4%
- 36.2%Third-down rate31.2%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
- 1.78Points / drive0.90
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.6%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.098
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 18/33 | 313 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 25 | 122 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Michael Westbrook | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Westbrook | 4 | 8 | 152 | 1 |
| Albert Connell | 6 | 12 | 88 | 1 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 8/21 | 60 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 28 | 122 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Eric Bieniemy | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrance Small | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Ed Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Van Dyke | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.6%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.68
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.30