Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
36
Model margin
+0.8est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.010EPA / play-0.030
- 40.3%Success rate38.9%
- +0.116EPA / dropback+0.047
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.130
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.9%
- 41.4%Third-down rate34.6%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate40.9%
- 1.59Points / drive1.28
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.138EPA / play allowed-0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 22/40 | 220 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 8 | 14 | 77 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Kevin R. Williams | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Bobby Collins | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 3 | 7 | 12 | 1 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Lucas | 16/20 | 142 | 0 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 23 | 64 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 7 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.75