Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
36
Model margin
+0.8est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.010EPA / play-0.030
- 40.3%Success rate38.9%
- +0.116EPA / dropback+0.047
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.130
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.9%
- 41.4%Third-down rate34.6%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate40.9%
- 1.59Points / drive1.28
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.138EPA / play allowed-0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 12:58 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 9:50 | 6 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 5:33 | 5 | 9 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 3:31 | 8 | 57 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q2 14:47 | 3 | 7 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 13:10 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q2 10:35 | 3 | -3 | Opp touchdown | 0–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 9:41 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–14 |
| BUF | Q2 9:41 | 10 | 60 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 5:43 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 0–14 |
| BUF | Q2 1:52 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 0–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–14 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–14 |
| NYJ | Q3 13:20 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–14 |
| BUF | Q3 11:43 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–14 |
| NYJ | Q3 9:53 | 4 | 25 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| BUF | Q3 7:13 | 9 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 3:29 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 7–17 |
| BUF | Q3 1:22 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 14:50 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–17 |
| BUF | Q4 13:21 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 11:52 | 9 | 32 | Turnover on downs | 7–17 |
| BUF | Q4 6:35 | 8 | 59 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 4:07 | 6 | 24 | End of half | 7–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 22/40 | 220 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 8 | 14 | 77 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Kevin R. Williams | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Bobby Collins | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 3 | 7 | 12 | 1 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Lucas | 16/20 | 142 | 0 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 23 | 64 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 7 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.75