1999 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kent Graham

13·23

Commanders

Washington

QB Brad Johnson

Jack Kent Cooke Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

WAS -5.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.084EPA / play+0.098
  • 38.6%Success rate44.4%
  • -0.016EPA / dropback+0.143
  • -0.207EPA / rush+0.036
  • 6.4%Explosive rate10.8%
  • 35.7%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 50.7%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 1.14Points / drive1.78
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.039EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 24-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–WAS
NYGQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:0335Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:483-5Punt0–0
WASQ1 10:27953Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 7:03719Turnover0–7
WASQ1 3:51519Punt0–7
NYGQ1 1:242-2Turnover0–7
WASQ1 0:39522Missed field goal0–7
NYGQ2 13:41418Punt0–7
WASQ2 12:0910Turnover0–7
NYGQ2 11:5034Field goal3–7
WASQ2 10:57660Field goal3–10
NYGQ2 7:02512Punt3–10
WASQ2 4:04744Turnover3–10
NYGQ2 1:40671Field goal6–10
WASQ3 15:00928Missed field goal6–10
NYGQ3 10:14314Turnover6–10
WASQ3 8:51511Punt6–10
NYGQ3 7:1230Punt6–10
WASQ3 5:49726Field goal6–13
NYGQ3 1:14410Opp touchdown6–20
WASQ4 14:5100Opp touchdown6–20
NYGQ4 14:511160Touchdown13–20
WASQ4 10:26758Missed field goal13–20
NYGQ4 6:07653Turnover13–20
WASQ4 4:05937Field goal13–23
NYGQ4 0:21243End of half13–23

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins13/2122101
Kent Graham3/103602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber10444.40
LeShon Johnson252.50
Kerry Collins4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ike Hilliard451010
David Patten34510
Tiki Barber45460
Pete Mitchell35300
Amani Toomer14180
Joe Jurevicius15110
Sean Bennett0100
Howard Cross0100
LeShon Johnson0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson17/2915801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis331835.51
Skip Hicks5142.80
Brad Johnson294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jenkins12300
James Thrash11250
Albert Connell14160
Irving Fryar33100
Stephen Davis3350
Brian Mitchell1120
Michael Westbrook1410
Stephen Alexander0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.9%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.39
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.61