Closing spread
STL -7.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
-3.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Stenstrom | 7/12 | 108 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 8/15 | 89 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 16 | 77 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Steve Stenstrom | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 6 | 8 | 120 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.9%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.50
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.