Closing spread
STL -7.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
-3.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:59 | 5 | 20 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 10:29 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:16 | 6 | 41 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 4:47 | 5 | 50 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 1:25 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 0:25 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q2 14:01 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SF | Q2 13:04 | 10 | 67 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 8:13 | 10 | 66 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| SF | Q2 3:02 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LA | Q2 1:41 | 12 | 88 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 16 | Punt | 13–7 |
| SF | Q3 11:03 | 3 | 9 | Opp touchdown | 20–7 |
| LA | Q3 9:41 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 20–7 |
| SF | Q3 9:41 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 20–7 |
| LA | Q3 7:13 | 10 | 48 | Field goal | 23–7 |
| SF | Q3 2:23 | 5 | 7 | Turnover | 23–7 |
| LA | Q3 0:26 | 2 | 11 | Turnover | 23–7 |
| SF | Q4 14:48 | 7 | 36 | Turnover | 23–7 |
| LA | Q4 11:17 | 11 | 46 | Punt | 23–7 |
| SF | Q4 4:49 | 8 | 31 | Turnover | 23–7 |
| LA | Q4 2:30 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 23–7 |
| SF | Q4 1:51 | 6 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 23–7 |
| LA | Q4 0:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Stenstrom | 7/12 | 108 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 8/15 | 89 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 16 | 77 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Steve Stenstrom | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 6 | 8 | 120 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.9%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.50
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.