Closing spread
JAX -7
Total
36.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
4.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.048EPA / play-0.091
- 42.5%Success rate36.5%
- +0.145EPA / dropback-0.084
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.100
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.5%
- 40.4%Third-down rate28.4%
- 46.2%Red-zone TD rate40.6%
- 1.75Points / drive1.00
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.127EPA / play allowed-0.151
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 44 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 9:50 | 3 | 57 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 8:07 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q1 5:57 | 5 | 17 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q1 3:18 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–10 |
| BAL | Q1 2:10 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–10 |
| BAL | Q1 1:07 | 4 | 8 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q2 14:52 | 10 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| BAL | Q2 10:38 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–10 |
| JAX | Q2 8:37 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 7–10 |
| BAL | Q2 5:38 | 11 | 67 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| JAX | Q2 1:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–13 |
| BAL | Q2 0:22 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 7–13 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–13 |
| JAX | Q3 13:20 | 7 | 38 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| BAL | Q3 10:22 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–13 |
| JAX | Q3 9:03 | 6 | 18 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| BAL | Q3 6:32 | 11 | 57 | Field goal | 7–16 |
| JAX | Q3 0:04 | 8 | 61 | Touchdown | 14–16 |
| BAL | Q4 11:00 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 22–16 |
| JAX | Q4 10:44 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 22–16 |
| BAL | Q4 10:44 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 22–16 |
| JAX | Q4 8:20 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 22–16 |
| BAL | Q4 7:30 | 4 | 49 | Touchdown | 22–23 |
| JAX | Q4 6:26 | 12 | 83 | Touchdown | 30–23 |
| BAL | Q4 1:39 | 4 | -5 | Turnover | 30–23 |
| JAX | Q4 1:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 30–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 27/47 | 338 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 20 | 46 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Alvis Whitted | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 10 | 18 | 132 | 1 |
| Keenan McCardell | 8 | 13 | 102 | 1 |
| Kyle Brady | 4 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Reggie Barlow | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 3 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 17/34 | 214 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Evans | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 13 | 30 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadry Ismail | 5 | 11 | 76 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Justin Armour | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Greg DeLong | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Chuck Evans | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.78