Closing spread
JAX -7
Total
36.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
4.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.048EPA / play-0.091
- 42.5%Success rate36.5%
- +0.145EPA / dropback-0.084
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.100
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.5%
- 40.4%Third-down rate28.4%
- 46.2%Red-zone TD rate40.6%
- 1.75Points / drive1.00
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.127EPA / play allowed-0.151
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 27/47 | 338 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 20 | 46 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Alvis Whitted | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 10 | 18 | 132 | 1 |
| Keenan McCardell | 8 | 13 | 102 | 1 |
| Kyle Brady | 4 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Reggie Barlow | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 3 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 17/34 | 214 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Evans | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 13 | 30 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadry Ismail | 5 | 11 | 76 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Justin Armour | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Greg DeLong | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Chuck Evans | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.78