Closing spread
BUF -4
Total
38
Model margin
+5.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play-0.010
- 37.4%Success rate40.3%
- -0.062EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.179EPA / rush-0.195
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.9%
- 35.1%Third-down rate41.4%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.19Points / drive1.59
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.138
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 13:09 | 11 | 31 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 6:46 | 9 | 23 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 1:32 | 11 | 52 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q2 10:54 | 8 | 22 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NE | Q2 6:29 | 10 | 29 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q2 1:37 | 2 | 58 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| NE | Q2 1:01 | 2 | 5 | End of half | 0–10 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–10 |
| BUF | Q3 13:27 | 1 | 6 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| NE | Q3 13:19 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–10 |
| BUF | Q3 11:41 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| NE | Q3 10:21 | 10 | 59 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| BUF | Q3 5:32 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 0–17 |
| NE | Q3 1:47 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 0–17 |
| BUF | Q4 14:45 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–17 |
| NE | Q4 13:40 | 4 | -4 | Turnover on downs | 0–17 |
| BUF | Q4 12:55 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–17 |
| NE | Q4 11:08 | 7 | 12 | Punt | 0–17 |
| BUF | Q4 9:43 | 11 | 60 | Turnover on downs | 0–17 |
| NE | Q4 3:21 | 3 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| BUF | Q4 2:41 | 4 | 13 | End of half | 7–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 18/34 | 205 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Glenn | 3 | 5 | 69 | 1 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 9/16 | 207 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Lennox Gordon | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Doug Flutie | 5 | -7 | -1.4 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 1 | 3 | 54 | 1 |
| Bobby Collins | 1 | 1 | 45 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.7%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.90